This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (2025/08/05, based on closing price)
| description | theme | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMND | InsurTech | 47.93 | +29.54 % | Q2 sales exceeded forecast and grew rapidly |
| BWXT | Nuclear Reactor Components | 182.00 | +17.79 % | New fuel orders boosted full-year forecastup |
| RCAT | drone service | 10.01 | +13.36 % | Defense Contracts Announced |
| MOB | eVTOL Infrastructure | 3.72 | +12.73 % | Flying car test plan reported |
| SYM | Warehouse Robotics | 63.21 | +11.74 % | Walmart additional introduction coverage |
| OKLO | small nuclear reactor | 84.09 | +10.05 % | NRC Review Moving Forward Raises Expectations |
| PLTR | AI Analysis Software | 173.27 | +7.85 % | Q2 Financial Results Beat |
| APLD | AI Data Center | 14.89 | +6.74 % | Observed increase in demand due to operation of new facility |
market insight
general mood
Weak growth in the U.S. ISM Services Index and the risk of additional tariffs were disliked,U.S. stocks fell slightlyThe market is expected to remain selectively risky. On the other hand, European and Asian equities are firm, and selective risk-on continues across the globe.Stronger dollar + higher long-term interest ratesOil prices continued to fall to the $66/bbl level and inflation fears subsided.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 44,111.74 | -0.14% | Major exporters wary of tariff costs |
| S&P 500 | 6,299.19 | -0.49% | Adjustment centered on IT and capital goods |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 20,916.55 | -0.65% | Sell-off in high P/E stocks as expectations of interest rate cuts recede |
| Nikkei 225 | 40,549.54 | +0.64% | Weak yen tailwind, semiconductor buying |
| Stoxx Europe 600 | 541.40 | +0.15% | Positive corporate results |
cash flow Shift from the U.S. to safe assets and European equities; continued inflows into Asian equities.
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | compared to previous day | point of view |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.217% | +1.9 bp | Rises on supply concerns despite sluggish service |
| Germany | 2.622% | -0.6bp | Sideways with deflationary dominance |
| Japan | 1.473% | -3.3bp | Repurchase in anticipation of super-long-term bidding |
Limited preference for safe assetsU.S. Interest Rates Sticky, Buy High Beta Bonds. U.S. interest rates are sticky, buying into high beta government bonds.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
| Currency Pairs | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| dollar-yen | 147.07 | +0.2% | interest rate differential expansion |
| Eurodollar | 1.1572 | -0.02% | Europe-U.S. Interest Rate Gap Widens Again |
| Dollar Renminbi (Offshore) | 7.18 | +0.1% | yuan softens on growth concerns |
commodity
| sector | trading value | compared to previous day | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $66.17 | -0.18% | OPEC+ production increase and demand slowdown |
| Brent Crude Oil | $68.65 | -0.16% | same as above |
| Natural Gas (Henry Hub) | $3.01 | 0.0% | Stalemate due to oversupply |
| Gold (spot) | $3,380.20 | +0.2% | Firm on rate cut speculation |
| silver | $37.85 | +1.2% | industrial demand speculation |
| Copper (COMEX) | $4.48/lb | +0.4% | Buyback due to revised U.S. tariffs |
crypto
| description | Price | 24h change | sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $114,072 | +0.1% | Firm with interest rates expected to fall |
| Ethereum | $3,627 | +2.1% | Thinner board thickness and enlarged bora |
Risk tolerance remains neutral to slightly bullish.
Macro Event Focus (~August 9)
- Aug. 6 China's July trade statistics: focus on export slowdown
- 8/6 Australia RBA Board of Governors Meeting: Strongly expected to remain unchanged
- 8/7 U.S. JOLTS jobs and consumer credit outstanding
- 8/8 UK BoE Monetary Policy Committee: 0.251 TP3T rate cut likely
- 8/8 U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Aug. 9 China July CPI and PPI, U.S. wholesale inventory revision
Insight Summary
- Sticky U.S. interest ratesis causing the dollar to strengthen and equity valuations to come under pressure on the other hand,European and Japanese stocks benefit from weaker currenciesRelative advantage in
- Falling energy prices curbed the risk of renewed inflation,Gold, High Growth Stocks, BitcoinDiversified investment in the
- The bonds areCore range at 4.21 TP3T in the U.S. and 2.61 TP3T in Germanyand assumed duration neutral.
- The portfolio is based on "US defensive + European large-cap stocks + gold and BTC", and a push-buy strategy is appropriate for risk assets.
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