This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (based on closing price on 2025/08/06)
| description | theme | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSAT | satellite communication | 27.82 | +30.67 % | Q1 sales 1.171 billion $ and EPS 0.17$ above forecast. |
| CTEV | medical data | 51.14 | +29.40 % | Announced expansion of EMR collaboration |
| ALAB | AI Interconnect | 174.39 | +28.66 % | Q2 EPS of 0.441 TP4T and sales of 192.1 TP4T beat significantly |
| ZETA | MarkeTech | 20.23 | +27.47 % | Significant beat in Q2 and upward revision for the full year |
| ANET | DC Network | 138.78 | +17.49 % | Apple investment reports provide tailwind |
| KVYO | Marketing Automation | 35.31 | +15.02 % | Q2 sales +32% and EPS 0.16$ above forecast |
| LEU | enriched uranium | 232.39 | +8.70 % | Q2 EPS 1.63$ with 103% surprise |
| LMND | InsurTech | 51.07 | +6.55 % | AI Billing Processes Increasingly Valued |
| AAPL | Big Tech | 213.25 | +5.09 % | Report on $40 billion capital investment |
market insight
general mood
U.S. stocks were favorably affected by reports of Apple's major investment plansAll three indices reboundedThe S&P 500 tested a return to 6,345.06 (+0.731 TP3T), the NASDAQ to 21,169.42 (+1.211 TP3T), and the Dow to 44,193.12 (+0.181 TP3T). Europe, on the other hand, reflected earnings disappointment.STOXX600 is -0.061 TP3T lower at 541.07The Tokyo market fell slightly atThe Nikkei 225 continued to rise to 40,794.86 (+0.601 TP3T). The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.34% (+0.17 bp)The German 10 years are...2.69% (+3 bp)Japan 10-year at 1.531 TP3T (+5 bp)The dollar remained strong, commodities were weak in energy, and precious metals were weak in commodities. The dollar remained strong, while commodities were weak in energy and soft in precious metals.There is a strong selective risk-on sentiment, "buy stocks even if interest rates are high and the dollar is strong."
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 44,193.12 | +81.38 (+0.18%) | Health care selloff offset by Apple's high |
| S&P 500 | 6,345.06 | +45.87 (+0.73%) | Megatech buyback |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,169.42 | +252.87 (+1.21%) | Semiconductor and cloud-driven |
| Nikkei 225 | 40,794.86 | +245.32 (+0.60%) | Semiconductor and export stocks continue to grow |
| STOXX600 | 541.07 | -0.34 (-0.06%) | Earnings Disappointment and Tariff Warning |
Funds are concentrated in U.S. large cap tech and Japanese export stocks, while Europe remains on hold.
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.34% | +2 | Selling ahead on risk-on |
| Germany | 2.69% | +3 | CPI upside warning |
| Japan | 1.53% | +5 | BOJ normalization speculation rekindled |
Long-term interest rates rise - brakes on equity PER expansionThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 147.56 (+0.46%)JPY: Yen selling dominated by rising U.S. interest rates and risk appetite.
- EUR/USD 1.1648 (+0.66%): Eurozone CPI slowdown also returns with a lull in dollar strength.
- usd/cny 7.1847 (+0.03%): Small movement due to the People's Bank of China's range keeping measures.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $64.40 | -1.17% | OPEC+ production increase and demand concerns |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.70 | -1.38% | same as above |
| natural gas | $3.09 | +2.70% | Cooling demand due to heat wave |
| money (written before an amount) | $3,369.93 | -0.33% | Gains prevail as interest rates rise |
| silver | $37.83 | +0.02% | Firm due to industrial demand observation |
| copper | $4.39 | +0.43% | Buyback on China Infrastructure Expectations |
crypto
- Bitcoin: $115,493 (+1.18%)-ETF flows continue and remain high.
- Ethereum: $3,676 (+1.78%)-L2 demand and upgrade expectations. Risk tolerance is maintained while funds circulate to large alts.
Macro Event Focus (8/7-8/9)
- 8/7 U.S. JOLTS Job Openings & Consumer Credit Outstanding: Inspect the strength of labor supply and demand and personal consumption.
- 8/8 BOE Monetary Policy Committee: 0.251 TP3T interest rate cut observation prevails.
- 8/8 U.S. New Unemployment Insurance Claims / Trade Balance: confirming the extent of the slowdown in employment.
- 8/9 China July CPI & PPI / U.S. Wholesale Inventory RevisionThe following is a review of disinflation and inventory adjustment progress.
Insight Summary
- Large U.S. tech led the indexand stocks continue to rise despite rising interest rates.
- The bonds areU.S. 4.3-4.51 TP3T at the mid-term limitDuration neutral when viewed as.
- The dollar continues to appreciate, though,Above 148 yen is a risk of authorities' censureThe short term is to buy the euro. Short term, buy the euro push.
- Commodities, despite energy softnessPicking up gold and copper pushis valid.
- Cryptos are cyclical, mainly ETH, and BTC is testing $120,000 upside.
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