This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (based on closing price on 2025/08/06)
| description | theme | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMIA | African EC | 5.82 | +27.07 % | Q2 deficit shrinking, expected to return to profitability |
| GRPN | Coupon EC | 36.89 | +20.28 % | Q2 sales +12 %, guidance revised upward |
| MQ | Card API | 6.83 | +20.25 % | Record Q2 transaction volume and return to EPS profitability |
| NBIS | biometrics | 65.31 | +18.55 % | Q2 sales +38 % financial surprises |
| IDR | Gold Mining & Rare Earths | 22.56 | +16.71 % | Gold Production Guidance Upward |
| DUOL | Language EdTech | 390.84 | +13.75 % | Q2MAU 75 million, sales +43 % |
| APP | Mobile Advertising | 437.34 | +11.97 % | Q2 earnings +54 % and EPS 0.44 $, a significant beat |
| QS | solid-state battery | 9.24 | +11.59 % | BMW Test Progress Reported in Financial Results |
| CRWV | AI Infrastructure | 121.08 | +9.83 % | Expectations for financial results after a lull in selling? |
| CRH | Construction Materials | 106.92 | +9.55 % | Favorable Q2 EBITDA margin improvement |
market insight
general mood
U.S. stocks were buoyed by Apple's plan to invest an additional $100 billion in high-tech, but caution remained on the first day of tariff implementation S&P 500 slightly lower, Nasdaq at new highs, Dow back downThe market was mixed. Europe was supported by good earnings issues and STOXX 600 is 0.9 % higher at 546.05 Japanese stocks rebounded to 1.5 to 1.5, led by semiconductors. Nikkei225 is at 41,059.15 The resilience of Asian equities was highlighted by a return to the In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. yield 4.34 %Ten years in Germany... 2.69 %Japan 10 years. 1.53 % The dollar remained strong across the board, while oil and gold softened. The dollar remained strong across the board, while oil and gold softened** in a selective risk-on market with "high interest rates + strong dollar but stock preference "**.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 43,968.64 | -224.48 (-0.51%) | Defensive Sector Selling Dominant |
| S&P 500 | 6,340.00 | -5.06 (-0.08%) | Rising interest rates will squeeze PER |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,242.70 | +73.28 (+0.35%) | Continued buying of Apple and semiconductors |
| Nikkei 225 | 41,059.15 | +264.29 (+0.65%) | Weaker yen + stronger semiconductors are tailwind |
| STOXX600 | 546.05 | +4.98 (+0.92%) | Favorable financial results led to a buyback |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.34 % | +2 | Concerns about inflation due to additional tariffs |
| Germany | 2.69 % | +3 | CPI upward swing observed |
| Japan | 1.53 % | +5 | BOJ normalization speculation rekindled |
The long-term zone is selling off globally and yields are moving higher.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 147.56 (+0.46 %): U.S. interest rates rise, dollar buying, and intervention alert levels loom.
- EUR/USD 1.1648 (+0.66 %): The euro rebounded after a lull in the dollar's strength.
- usd/cny 7.1847 (+0.03 %): Small movement with the People's Bank of China maintaining its range.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $63.88/bbl | -0.47 % | OPEC+ Production increase, demand concerns |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.70/bbl | -1.38 % | same as above |
| natural gas | $3.09/MMBtu | +2.7 % | Increased demand for electricity due to heat wave |
| money (written before an amount) | $3,370/oz | -0.3 % | Gains prevail as real interest rates rise |
| silver | $37.83/oz | +0.02 % | Firm due to industrial demand observation |
| copper | $4.39/lb | +0.4 % | Buyback on China Infrastructure Expectations |
crypto
- Bitcoin $117,300 (+1.5 %): Rising due to reports of 401(k) ban.
- Ethereum $3,870 (+5 %)ETF inflows and L2 demand are tailwinds.
ETF flows are supporting and funds are circulating to large alts.
Macro Event Focus (8/8 - 8/12)
- 8/8 BOE Monetary Policy Committee0.25 % rate cut or not spills over to GBP and European equities.
- 8/8 U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, Trade Balance: Focus on employment slowdown and external demand.
- Aug 9 China July CPI & PPIConfirmation of the degree of disinflationary progression.
- Aug-12 U.S. July CPIThe biggest event is: whether the core inflation slowdown will continue.
Insight Summary
- Two-Top Market for U.S. Large Tech and European Economic Sensitivitiescontinues.
- We expect bond yields to head near 4.5 % with room for upside, and are duration neutral.
- Sustained dollar strength, but intervention risk at 148 yen levelShort term is a combination of buying the euro and shorting the yuan. Short term is a combination of Euro pushback and RMB shorts.
- Commodities also softened in crude oil,Tighter supply and demand for gas and copper provide room for higher pricesThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- Cryptos are testing resistance at $120,000 BTC and $4,000 ETH.
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