This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 08/14/2025)
| Ticker (Brand name kana) | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLO (DeLocal) | 15.35 | +31.31% | Fintech and cross-border payments | Strong financial results and upward guidance revision. |
| CRML (Carmel) | 5.85 | +17.47% | Semiconductor and Automotive AI | Strong financial results and increased orders for EVs. |
| ONDS | 3.93 | +11.65% | Telecommunications Infrastructure & IoT | Improved sales and orders in financial results. |
| HROW | 40.01 | +9.62% | Medical and ophthalmic products | Profitability improved in financial results. |
| TATT (TATT Technologies) | 36.03 | +6.27% | Aircraft Parts & Defense | Increased demand for aircraft and defense in financial results. |
| OUST (AUST) | 35.05 | +5.86% | LiDAR sensor | Favorable new contract expansion. |
| MOB (Morbion) | 4.40 | +4.76% | Mobile Apps & Advertising | Increased use of in-game advertising. |
| SLI (Standard Lithium) | 2.87 | +4.74% | Lithium mining and refining | Project Progress Report. |
| RGTI (Righetti Computing) | 17.98 | +4.29% | quantum computer | Strong financial results and increased orders. |
overallEarnings-driven small- and mid-cap growth advantageThe trend is clear. The top performers are stocks with sales growth and improved guidance, such as DLO (DeLocal), and the funds are going to the theme backed by actual demand.
Thematic Trends
- Fintech & Payments
DLO rises sharply on the back of strong earnings. The company's expansion of transactions in emerging markets was appreciated. - AI, Automation, Advanced Manufacturing
CRML, ONDS, and OUST were strong on the back of recovering demand and increased orders. - Medical/Biotech
HROW and MOB are bought on product demand and market expansion expectations. - Aerospace & Defense
TATT's performance reflects demand for special aircraft and equipment. - Energy & Resources
SLI is speculating on improving market conditions as lithium-related.
RGTI rises on quantum computing-related growth expectations.
personal impression
There has been a noticeable flow of straightforward funds into stocks backed by earnings results, and themes range from fintech to strategic minerals. While cautioning against short-term overheating,Uptrend formation over a span of several weeksThe composition of the resource-related sectors is in view. On the other hand, resource-related stocks are highly market-linked and fluctuate wildly depending on the headlines. In addition to individual stocks, inflows into virtual currencies continue to be strong.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/08/14
general mood
The US 10yr yield strengthened slightly to +5bp to 4.29% and the dollar strengthened slightly, as the US July PPI upswing reduced expectations of a major rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 hit a new high at +0.03%, while the Dow/Nas was mostly flat. Europe rallied on good earnings and defense stocks, while Japanese stocks fell back. In commodities, crude oil rebounded, while gold softened on a stronger dollar.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 44,911.26 | -8.98 (-0.02%) | PPI upbeat, mixed highs and lows, higher interest rates. |
| S&P 500 | 6,468.54 | +1.94 (+0.03%) | Major stocks were firm and reached new highs for the third day in a row. |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,710.67 | -2.17 (-0.01%) | Growth stocks are sluggish due to rising interest rates. |
| Nikkei 225 | 42,649.26 | -625.41 (-1.45%) | Profit taking mainly in export stocks. |
| STOXX600 | 553.87 | +3.03 (+0.55%) | Highest in two months, led by defense and finance. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.29 % | +5 | The yield is rising due to the PPI upswing. |
| Germany | 2.71 % | +3 | This was a slight increase, coupled with higher European stock prices. |
| Japan | 1.55 % | +3 | Price observation is persistently high. |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- USD/JPY 147.87 (+0.30%): The dollar is dominated by the rise in interest rates after the U.S. PPI.
- EUR/USD 1.1641 (-0.50%): The dollar index is rebounding and the euro is falling back.
- usd/cny 7.1785 (-0.04%)The RMB has appreciated slightly due to the People's Bank of China's preference for stability.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $63.96/bbl | +2.10% | It is a rebound in supply risk consciousness. |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.84/bbl | +1.80% | Ditto, at a one-week high. |
| natural gas | $2.84/MMBtu | +0.46% | The near-term is a small rebound due to inventory and weather factors. |
| Gold (physical) | $3,337.21/oz | -0.50% | It is heavy with a strong dollar and rising yields. |
| silver | $37.97/oz | -1.30% | The price of gold is low. |
| copper | $4.46450/lb | -0.39% | Risk caution is receding, but the gains are heavy on the upside. |
crypto
- Bitcoin $118,314.20 (-4.06%)The price is falling back from the record highs.
- Ethereum $4,763.65 (+3.40%)ETF inflows are expected to remain strong.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 8/15 (Fri) U.S. Retail Sales (July): Confirmation of the sustainability of consumer spending.
- 8/15 (Fri) U.S. Industrial Production/Equipment Operating Rate (Jul): Degree of supply-side deceleration.
- 8/15 (Fri) U.S. - University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Preliminary): Focus on inflation expectations.
- Aug 21-23 Jackson Hole Conference: Guidance focus of Powell's speech.
Insight Summary
- In light of rising interest rates and a rebound in the dollar, we will reduce growth overheating in the short term and thicken value/defensive.
- Crude oil will be lower at a geopolitical premium, and we will consider a short-term push in energy and services.
- Cryptos are managing volatility with ETH strengthening and BTC falling back in dispersion, and light positioning is appropriate before the US index and JH meeting.
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