This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 08/15/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH (United Health) | 304.01 | +11.98% | Health Care Insurance | Berkshire New Ownership Disclosure Review Buy |
| FSLR (First Solar) | 199.95 | +11.05% | solar panel | Clean Energy Sell-Off Spurred by Sunrun's Favorable Results |
| NU (Nu Holdings) | 13.10 | +9.08% | Digital Bank of Latin America | Q2 net income +42% and sales +40% favorable valuation |
| LYFT (Lift) | 15.82 | +8.21% | ride sharing | Governance is expected to improve with the resignation of the founder from the board of directors and the consolidation of voting rights. |
| ZETA (Zeta Global) | 19.13 | +7.41% | AI Marketing/Advertising SaaS | Momentum Continues After Q2 Beat Guidance Increase |
| OSCR (Oscar Health) | 15.64 | +6.54% | Digital Insurance/ACA | Reviewing and buying on the cue of UNH's rise? |
personal jurisdiction
A day led by the health insurance sector, with UNH's surge (Berkshire's disclosure of new holdings) pushing the index higher and buying spreading to insurance peers (e.g., OSCR). The Dow temporarily reached a new high for the year, and the ground is feeling a rotation from tech-driven to defensive colors.
In terms of themeclean energyFSLR was at the top of the list due to the strong performance of FSLR and the associative buying triggered by Sunrun's positive earnings. The FSLR was at the top of the list.seeking trends in the sectorThe state of the
Fundamentally, theresults-drivenNU maintained high growth in both sales and profit in Q2, which was honestly appreciated; ZETA continued momentum after "beats and raises" and was a trend-following buy after earnings; and NU was a trend-following buy after the "beats and raises".
In the event system, LYFT'sStrengthening of governance (resignation of the founder from the board of directors and consolidation of voting rights)The stock price was boosted by a rise in the number of companies with a large number of customers. The expectation of a structural improvement in supply-demand balance has been recognized.
General,Reacted honestly to large reassurances (UNH) and brightness of financial results (NU/ZETA/Sunrun)The day was a day of "no news". With the tech sector weakening (semiconductor equipment-related adjustments), funds seemed to have turned to themes with high news certainty.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/08/15
general mood
U.S. stocks were slightly higher on the Dow and lower on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, indicating a strong rotation of "healthcare up, semiconductor manufacturing equipment down" on the day. In Europe, the STOXX 600 fell slightly, while in Japan, the Nikkei was sharply higher, indicating that risk appetite remained intact over the weekend.
Interest rates were up in both the U.S., Germany, and Japan, with the curve weakening slightly and the dollar weakening (the euro appreciating slightly and the yen appreciating slightly). In commodities, crude oil fell back, natural gas continued to rise, and precious metals were little changed.
In the tug-of-war between geopolitics (U.S.-Russia talks) and the prospect of a September rate cut, the theme is the "separation of the economy-resistant sector from interest rate sensitive assets.
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 44,946.12 | +34.86 (+0.08%) | Health care-led firmness. |
| S&P 500 | 6,449.80 | -18.74 (-0.29%) | Growth softening under rising interest rates. |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,622.98 | -87.69 (-0.40%) | Selling of semiconductor production equipment spilled over. |
| Nikkei 225 | 43,378.31 | +729.05 (+1.71%) | Buying of large-cap and semiconductor stocks prevailed. |
| STOXX600 | 553.56 | -0.31 (-0.06%) | Wait-and-see due to low oil prices and uncertainty about the U.S. outlook. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.33 % | +4 | Uncertainty remains over the timing of interest rate cuts, even with mixed data from retail and other sources. |
| Germany | 2.79 % | +8 | Higher U.S. interest rates and position adjustments ahead of PMI take them higher. |
| Japan | 1.56 % | +2 | Selling into the long-term zone and attacking near the upper end of the range. |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 147.17 (-0.40%): The yen is slightly higher with a soft dollar advantage.
- EUR/USD 1.1704 (+0.48%)The dollar's weakness prevailed and the euro rebounded even as U.S. interest rates rose.
- usd/cny 7.1803 (+0.08%)The market is slightly elevated, reflecting the authorities' desire for stability.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $62.80/bbl | -1.81% | Return to the market due to meeting expectations and supply/demand observations. |
| Brent Crude Oil | $65.85/bbl | -1.48% | After a turnaround on the previous day, the market fell back. |
| natural gas | $2.92/MMBtu | +2.64% | Improved demand outlook and technical buying. |
| Gold (physical) | $3,329.40/oz | -0.02% | Even with rising interest rates, the geopolitics are firming up. |
| silver | $38.00/oz | -0.03% | Gold-linked small movements. |
| copper | $4.48870/lb | -0.03% | Chinese demand/inventory speculation is not very directional. |
crypto
- Bitcoin $117,356.30 (-0.81%): Heavy upside due to risk adjustment before the weekend.
- Ethereum $4,440.05 (-2.36%): The downside is relatively large in reaction to the recent upswing.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 08/20 (Wed) FOMC Minutes (July): Looking for clues for a September interest rate cut.
- 08/21 (Thu) Preliminary Global PMI (US, Europe, UK): Focus on the degree of growth slowdown and price indexes.
- 08/21-23 (Thu-Sat) Jackson Hole: Policy signals from Powell's speech.
- 08/22 (Fri) Japan, National CPI (July): Confirmation of the degree of slowdown in underlying inflation and the BOJ stance.
Insight Summary
- cryptoBTC: BTC is aPicking up the push, ETH is lightThe stance of the "Mere Old Man" is a safe one.
- stock (company)The relative trade in healthcare/semiconductor manufacturing equipment ↘ may be advantageous in the short term. Under uncertainty over the timing of the U.S. interest rate cut, interest rate-sensitive mega-growths seem to be limited to the push.
- bond: The U.S. 10-year is up in the low 4.31 TP3T range.Duration neutral to slightly longerIt is appropriate to wait for the event (FOMC meeting summary/JH) to pass at
- exchange (e.g. foreign):cheap dollar biasIf you want to continue...EUR long/JPY is event risk managementSwing response looks good in the
- commodity: Crude oil isselling on the recovery trendGas is waiting for a round of short-covering. Gold isBuy lower, take staged profit on higher priceslooks good.
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