This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 08/18/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSLR (First Solar) | 219.33 | +9.69% | solar panel | U.S. Treasury Department's Clean Energy Tax Credit Guidance Favorable |
| BITF (Bitfarms) | 1.38 | +9.52% | Bitcoin Mining/HPC | Former AWS Executive Announced as Director |
| RCAT (Red Cat) | 9.19 | +9.27% | Drone & Defense | Associated buying on materials related to US Army SRR adoption of subsidiary Teal Drones |
| TATT (TAT Technologies) | 40.14 | +8.31% | Aircraft MRO | Awarded 3-year, $12M contract for APU maintenance for B777 |
| OSCR (Oscar Health) | 16.65 | +6.46% | Digital Insurance/ACA | Continued buying after announcement of employer ICHRA plan with Hy-Vee |
| TEM (Tempus AI) | 78.45 | +6.33% | Medical AI and Genomics | Bullish Report and Momentum After Strong Q2 Results |
personal impression
The overall market is in small movements,Funds are concentrated on "highly certain materials" such as policies, contracts, and alliances.The day that was. Sunlight was the main driver of sector buying as the Treasury Department's tax credit guidance was perceived to be more modest than expected, and the FSLR rose.
In defense and aviationOrder news boosts stock prices honestlyTATT rose on a three-year contract for APU maintenance for the B777, while RCAT was also buoyed by peripheral materials surrounding the US Army's SRR-related hiring of its subsidiary Teal Drones.
Individually, the BITF isFormer AWS Executive Appointed to Board of DirectorsIn the health care sector, OSCR attracted buying on the news of a human resourcesICHRA Plan with Hy-VeeMaterial continues to be digested; TEM isBullish on post earnings momentumContinuation Flow.
In general, macro can be a wait-and-see situation,Policy changes and topics with high order probabilityIs this a situation where funds turn to
On the thematic side, the impression is clean energy and defense tech, and on the funder side, "beat & positive guidance/order visibility".
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/08/18
general mood
In the U.S., the three major indices are slightly mixed, Europe is flat, and in Japan, the Nikkei is steady to new highs. The background is a wait-and-see and position adjustment before the FOMC meeting, Jackson Hole, and major retail earnings results, and the market appears to be compressing price movements due to reduced liquidity and gamma suppression before the events.
Bonds are in a flat range for the U.S. 10-year, slightly lower for Germany, and in range for the day.
The dollar paused in its appreciation, and the yen was to and fro in the neighborhood of 148.
Topics of interest include the rise in solar following clean energy tax credit guidance and headlines from Ukraine-related summit meetings.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 44,911.82 | -31.36 (-0.07%) | Directionless ground ahead of the meeting and Jackson Hole |
| S&P 500 | 6,449.15 | -1.95 (-0.03%) | Difficult to find clues in large-cap stocks due to flat interest rates |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,629.77 | +1.21 (+0.01%) | Semiconductors are mixed, interest rates stable, but still high |
| Nikkei 225 | 43,714.31 | +336.00 (+0.77%) | Continued growth due to lingering high U.S. stock prices and firmness of mainstays |
| STOXX600 | 554.01 | +0.45 (+0.08%) | Energy rebounded slightly, but the overall market is still waiting to see what happens before the event. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.34 % | +1 | Slightly higher due to holding before the meeting agenda. |
| Germany | 2.76 % | -2 | U.S. interest rate-linked traffic and small moves in European stocks strengthen demand. |
| Japan | 1.57 % | +1 | Long-term interest rates remain range bound, supply and demand factors awaiting events |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 147.95 (+0.04%): U.S. dollar steady on slight rise in 10-year U.S. interest rates.
- EUR/USD 1.1665 (+0.03%)The market is stalemated as it waits for events in Europe and the U.S. amid a lack of materials.
- usd/cny 7.1849 (+0.04%)The price is stable in the middle of the range.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $63.32/bbl | +0.83% | Receding supply concerns and pre-event buying |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.60/bbl | +1.14% | Speculation and position adjustment related to political events |
| natural gas | $2.89/MMBtu | -0.89% | Slowing demand outlook (temperature forecast) caused a drop in the market |
| Gold (physical) | $3,332.40/oz | -0.09% | Direction limited by flat U.S. interest rates, LBMA PM slightly lower |
| silver | $38.09/oz | +0.95% | Industrial demand expectations and gold-linked returns |
| copper | $4.45700/lb | -0.47% | COMEX down slightly, sheath normalization observed |
crypto
- Bitcoin $116,390.00 (-0.96%): A pause in risk appetite in the wait-and-see market for stocks and interest rates.
- Ethereum $4,307.86 (-2.95%): Relative softness after the return of the main alts.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/08/20 FOMC Minutes (July meeting) released: market interest focused on indications of a rate cut path.
- 2025/08/21-23 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium: tone of Powell's speech spills over into interest rates and stocks.
- 2025/08/21 Preliminary World PMI (US, Europe, UK, Japan): confirmation of the degree of bottoming out in the manufacturing sector.
- 2025/08/21 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: slight difference in employment slowdown affects interest rates and stocks.
Insight Summary
- Since U.S. interest rates are expected to remain stable until the event passes, a neutral stance is appropriate, with equities holding down beta and a slight increase in defensive weight.
- Crude oil is expected to be heavy to the upside near Brent$67, with a range outlook of return and pushback.
- Gold is in a price consolidation phase at $3,320-3,360, and diversified push-picking during a sharp decline may be effective.
- The exchange rate is up around 148 against the dollar, and the first half of 147 is a good ground for short-term buy rotation to function.
- For cryptos, until the event passes, it is safe to reduce net exposure and allocate relative value in favor of BTC.
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