This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 08/28/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSTG (Pure Storage) | 80.54 | +32.34% | Flash Storage & AI Data Center | Q2 Earnings Beat and Meta Large Orders Observation |
| LTRX (Lantronix) | 4.65 | +25.34% | Industrial IoT and embedded networks | Q4 Earnings Announcement and FY26 Growth Guideline |
| SNOW (Snowflake) | 241.00 | +20.27% | Cloud DWH and AI Data Infrastructure | Q2 Beat Product Revenue Forecast Upward Revision |
| BILL (Building Holdings, Inc.) | 49.20 | +18.18% | Payment SaaS for SMEs | Q4 Sales $383M, EPS Exceeded Estimate and Guidance Improved |
| ONDS (Ondus Holdings, Inc.) | 5.70 | +12.43% | Industrial Drone / Anti-UAS | Continued focus on UAS$2.7M order reports |
| MOB (Mobilicom) | 6.40 | +8.84% | Drone Communications and Cyber Defense | Scheduled to speak at investor conference and order progress speculation |
| QUBT (Quantum Computing) | 16.10 | +8.71% | quantum computing | Federal contract award reports and major company tie-up observations |
| PGY (Pagaya Technologies) | 37.72 | +8.67% | AI Screening and Credit Fintech | Zacks Bullish Rating and AI-Related Spotlight |
| RGTI (Righetti Computing) | 16.58 | +7.73% | quantum computing | Quantum research partnership with Montana State University reported. |
| CRDO (Credo Technology) | 131.82 | +7.41% | Data Center High-Speed Communications | Demand for AEC for AI expected before earnings next week, reaching new highs |
personal impression
AI-relatedSoftware x InfrastructureA day of leadership, triggered by SNOW beats and raises, PSTG earnings, and the prospect of large orders for Meta.Reevaluation of Data InfrastructureThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Fintech is the BILLFinancial results upswing and improved guidanceThe ground recovered at In the interconnects, CRDOHighest prices due to anticipation ahead of financial resultsThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
defense droneandquantumONDS and MOB are the most recent order and platform materials.Momentum Continuesand QUBT and RGTI due to contract and alliance reports.speculation ahead of timeThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
General,Favorable financial results and the certainty of specific ordersConcentration of funds in stocks with highAI-related revaluation and thematic regressionground.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/08/28
general mood
U.S. equities were all slightly higher at all three major indices, with risk tolerance improving on the back of continued AI-driven cycle and upward revision of the U.S. Q2 GDP revision. In Europe, funds returned to domestic defensive demand with a small selloff, while in Japan, the market continued to recover with a push-back trend.
Bonds are lower in the U.S., Germany is slightly lower, and Japan is range yields converging. Currencies are back slightly against the yen and euro after a lull in dollar weakness, commodities continue to rise in crude oil x gold adjusts higher, base metals are mixed.
The main melody in the short term is a reaffirmation of valuation resistance due to the concomitant expectation of interest rate cuts and the view of sustained growth. On the other hand, policy independence and geopolitical headlines are residual risks for upside volatility factors.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,636.90 | +71.67 (+0.16%) | Continued growth due to upward revision of GDP and firmness of AI-related businesses |
| S&P 500 | 6,501.86 | +20.46 (+0.32%) | Megatech-led highs continue |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,705.16 | +115.02 (+0.53%) | Return of funds to large-cap growth stocks |
| Nikkei 225 | 42,828.79 | +308.52 (+0.73%) | A lull in excessive yen appreciation and a tailwind of higher U.S. stock prices |
| STOXX600 | 553.67 | -1.09 (-0.20%) | Health care weakness and regional variations |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.21 % | -3 | Curve decline due to reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts |
| Germany | 2.70 % | +1 | Slight return with U.S. interest rates falling on the side |
| Japan | 1.62 % | -1 | Supply and demand factors come and go amidst unchanged policy normalization views |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.82 (-0.39%): Dollar selling and yen buying back due to lower US interest rates.
- EUR/USD 1.1704 (+0.63%): Euro slightly higher in tandem with dollar softening.
- usd/cny 7.1460 (-0.05%): Narrow range under the authorities' guidance.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $64.60/bbl | +0.70% | Tight supply-demand outlook due to inventory decline and geopolitical headlines |
| Brent Crude Oil | $68.62/bbl | +0.84% | Same as above, continued |
| natural gas | $2.79/MMBtu | -2.45% | Observation of Supply-Demand Easing and Position Reorganization |
| Gold (physical) | $3,416.14/oz | -1.02% | Tug of war between profit-taking at higher prices and dollar trends |
| silver | $38.52/oz | +0.36% | Slightly higher gold-linked |
| copper | $4.40500/lb | +0.57% | Autonomous rebound incorporating expectations of macro improvement |
crypto
- Bitcoin $112,913.00 (+1.00%): Risk recovery linked to higher stock prices and a weaker dollar.
- Ethereum $4,588.00 (+2.23%): Support for L2 flows and tightening supply/demand observations.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- Friday, 2025/08/29 U.S. PCE Deflator (July) - Confirmation of core stickiness
- 2025/09/01 (Monday) U.S. Markets Closed (Labor Day) - Liquidity Decline and Gap Risk
- 2025/09/02 (Tue) U.S. ISM Manufacturing/China Zai Xin PMI - Verification of the bottoming out of the global manufacturing sector
- 2025/09/03 (Wed) US - JOLTS Job Openings (July) - Inspection of the degree of slack in labor supply and demand
Insight Summary
- Expectations of interest rate cuts x AI sustainability will continue to test the upside of equities, quality/defensive relative advantage
- Bonds assume continued downward pressure on the U.S. 10-year, with a preference for front- to medium-term duration.
- Currencies are back in range with a weak dollar bias, and USD/JPY is a combination of a return before 147 and a push below 146.
- Commodities are asymmetrical with oil's return trend x gold staying at highs, range rotation and diversified hedging running side by side
- Crypto is ETH relative strength cycle, size control and maneuvering operations across events
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