This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 09/10/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL (Oracle) | 328.33 | +35.95% | AI Cloud and DB | RPO$455B disclosure in Q1, OpenAI huge contract report. |
| CRWV (Core Weave) | 117.14 | +16.88% | AI Cloud and GPU Rental | New VC division and Oracle AI demand associations |
| ATRO (Astronix) | 43.09 | +14.65% | Aerospace and Defense Electronics | Announced plan to issue $2.1 billion in convertible bonds |
| BE (Bloom Energy) | 62.96 | +12.64% | Fuel Cell and Data Center Power Supply | Supplier MTAR order reports and AI power-related speculation |
| APLD (Applied Digital) | 16.98 | +11.71% | AI Data Center | New North Dakota Campus Plan and Oracle Associations |
| AXTI (AXTI) | 3.36 | +10.53% | Compound semiconductor substrate | Continued rise after Q2 results |
| BITF (Bitfarms) | 1.75 | +10.06% | Bitcoin Mining | Mining stocks higher on BTC $100,000 level observation and AI/HPC associations |
| CRDO (Credo Technology) | 163.96 | +10.02% | Data Center Wiring | Q1 good earnings aftermath and Bluebird DSP coverage |
| AVGO (Broadcom) | 369.57 | +9.77% | Semiconductors and Custom AI Chips | Oracle associates with reports of a 10 billion order for $ for OpenAI |
| ARM (ARM Holdings, Inc.) | 154.14 | +9.47% | CPU Design/IP | On-device AI enhancement with Lumex announcement |
| VRT (Vertive) | 136.74 | +8.89% | Data Center Cooling and Power Supply | Attended MS Conference and scouted AI infrastructure |
| LITE (lumenum) | 164.88 | +8.67% | Optical Communication Devices | Wolfe Conference Attendance and AI Optical Communication Application Expectations |
| MTZ (MASTEC) | 190.12 | +8.65% | Power Transmission and Infrastructure Construction | Record U.S. Data Center Construction Reported, Orders Expected |
| INOD (INODATA) | 58.15 | +8.43% | AI Data Maintenance | 2025 Organic Growth +451 TP3T Forecast Report |
personal impression
The Oracle.RPO (contract balance) $455Band AI order explosion led the overall market, with spillover buying led by AI infrastructure-related companies.
There is a strong trend toward single theme associations ranging from semiconductors (AVGO, ARM, CRDO), data center equipment (VRT, LITE), power/fuel cells (BE), construction/power transmission (MTZ), and HPC/cloud (CRWV, APLD).
As for individual materials, event-driven colors, such as ARM's Lumex announcement to strengthen on-device AI, and ATRO's convertible bond plan. On the other hand, there are glimpses of overheating on the supply-demand side,Continuity of AI capital investmentUnderpinned by strong construction and power data supporting the
General,AI Cloud → Semiconductors → Power & Equipment → ConstructionThis is a phase where it is important to stay well on the theme-driven path, as the chain of sector rotation to the
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/09/10
general mood
U.S. stocks areS&P 500 and NASDAQ reach daily highsThe Dow is in a mixed market with a small decline. Background.Weakness in producer pricesand large tech favorites by running together.Reinforcement of interest rate cutsThe quality/growth advantage continues in Europe is holding small moves, while Japan isNikkei 225 closes at its highest levelabove the top of the range. Bonds are slightly lower in the U.S., flat in Germany, and in the JGB (JGB) range.yield convergenceThe exchange rate isa lull in the dollar's depreciationrange reversion. Commodities are in a flat range for crude oil,Gold at all-time highsretention. The short-term stance isBeta suppression, such as reducing holding ratios before an event x Quality thickeningMobile operation of the
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,490.92 | -220.42 (-0.48%) | Rebalancing before inflation indicators and individual weakness within the index. |
| S&P 500 | 6,532.04 | +19.43 (+0.30%) | PPI slowdown and large tech buybacks. |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,886.06 | +6.57 (+0.03%) | Maintained the highest highs. |
| Nikkei 225 | 43,837.67 | +378.38 (+0.87%) | Good supply-demand and tech-driven upside. |
| STOXX600 | 552.29 | -0.10 (-0.02%) | Stalemate waiting for materials. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.02 % | -1 | Weakness in wholesale prices led to a slight decline. |
| Germany | 2.66 % | 0 | Sideways range with U.S. interest rates falling. |
| Japan | 1.60 % | 0 | Range under the policy unchanged observation. |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- USD/JPY 147.45 (+0.93%): position adjustment before CPI and a stronger dollar with flat U.S. interest rates.
- EUR/USD 1.1705 (-0.47%): A lull in the dollar's weakness is shaking out.
- usd/cny 7.1209 (-0.28%): Yuan repurchase under the authorities' guidance.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $63.67/bbl | +1.70% | Geopolitical headlines and high risk assets dominate buybacks |
| Brent Crude Oil | $67.49/bbl | +1.66% | Same as above, continued tightness observation |
| natural gas | $3.11/MMBtu | -0.13% | Flat supply and demand and position liquidation traffic |
| Gold (physical) | $3,638.70/oz | +0.32% | Continued expectations of interest rate cuts and stronger demand for safe assets |
| silver | $41.10/oz | +0.54% | High gold price linkage and underlying support for ETF flows |
| copper | $4.54/lb | +0.89% | Autonomous rebound after round of tariff headlines |
crypto
- Bitcoin $112,250.00 (+0.68%)Buyback trend of recovering risk tolerance under the rising stock market and declining interest rates.
- Ethereum $4,440.37 (+1.35%)L2: Continued L2 flow and relative strength of supply-demand tightening
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- Thursday, 2025/09/11 ECB Executive Board Meeting - Growth Outlook and Tone of Guidance
- 2025/09/12 (Fri) Preliminary U.S. Michigan Consumer Confidence (September) - Direction of Inflation Expectations
- 2025/09/12 (Fri) UK - Monthly GDP (July) - Sustainability check of services traction
- 2025/09/16 (Tue) U.S. Retail Sales (August) - Confirmation of Consumption Stickiness and Price Trends
Insight Summary
- Interest rate cut observation x Tech tractionQuality bias dominance due to the continuation of a two-tier market in
- The bonds areMedium-Term Duration Increases in Stagesand maneuvering adjustments according to the event.
- The exchange rate isRange of dollar depreciation lullAssuming continuation, dollar/yen turns around 147
- Commodities areOil range reversion x Gold staying highDiversified hedging maintained
- cryptoSize suppression rotationand leveraging the relative strength of ETH on the BTC axis.
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