This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
ウォッチリスト（2025/09/22 終値ベース）
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLUG (Plug Power) | 2.65 | +21.56% | Hydrogen & Fuel Cells | $16.6億ローン確保報道とショートカバー加速 |
| APLD (Applied Digital) | 24.45 | +19.38% | AI Data Center | CoreWeave関連契約・増設計画思惑継続 |
| AXTI (AXTI) | 5.14 | +18.43% | Compound semiconductor substrate | 特になし。連日の上昇つづく |
| BFLY（バタフライ・ネットワーク） | 2.17 | +17.30% | 携帯超音波・医療AI | CTO就任とTIME選出報道の物色 |
| SES (SES AI) | 1.85 | +17.09% | Next Generation EV Batteries | 海外買収完了報道の余韻 |
| FLUX (Flux Power) | 3.02 | +17.05% | Industrial Lithium Battery | Q4売上+25%・粗利改善の決算評価 |
| ASPI (ASP Isotopes) | 11.22 | +13.79% | 同位体・核医療 | 特になし。原子力テーマとして見直しの可能性 |
| LTBR (Light Bridge) | 20.15 | +10.35% | Next Generation Nuclear Fuel | 9/23原子力サミット登壇予定の思惑 |
| ONDS (Ondus Holdings, Inc.) | 7.26 | +8.04% | 無人機・ロボ向け通信 | 国防向け$350万受注発表 |
| NBIS (Nevius Group) | 106.60 | +7.34% | AIクラウド | 強気カバレッジ継続と目標引き上げ報道 |
| CRWV (Core Weave) | 133.23 | +6.70% | AI Cloud and GPU Rental | 強気レポート継続とAI設備投資期 |
personal impression
AIインフラ連想の再拡散and水素・電池のリバウンドの同時進行相場の様子。
CoreWeaveやNebiusの強気評価継続にAPLDが連想高、PLUGとFLUXは金融・決算材料でのモメンタム維持。
原子力関連の息の長い物色も継続。LTBRのサミット登壇や核医療テーマのASPIなど政策・イベントドリブンの資金巡回も続いている模様。
ドローン・ロボ向けのONDSは防衛受注の確度で上昇、BFLYは人事・評価指標を材料に短期資金流入。
出遅れ感のある銘柄もニュースやテーマとの関連として物色される傾向が続いている印象です。
Personal,バタフライネットワーク（BFLY）を拾い始めてたところなので、動き出しに期待です。
market insight
【分析日】2025/09/22
general mood
U.S. stocks are主要3指数そろって最高値更新, ,Megatech initiativeと初回利下げ通過後のリスク選好継続の上昇相場。欧州はSTOXX600小幅安で自動車・金融の重し、資源・テックが下支えの拮抗相場The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
日本は日経平均が+1%弱の続伸で外部環境改善と円安気味の業績モメンタム再評価The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
The bonds are米10年わずかに上昇・独小動き・JGB横ばいのイベント明けポジション微修正The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
The exchange rate isドル小反発・ユーロ横ばい・元は当局管理で安定の低ボラ相場The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Commodities areWTI反落・金は高値圏維持でマクロ期待と需給の綱引きThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
暗号資産は方向感限定の持ち合いでイベントボラ剝落の均衡局面The first is.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,381.54 | +66.27 (+0.14%) | 利下げ通過後の安心感と大型株物色 |
| S&P 500 | 6,693.75 | +29.39 (+0.44%) | Megatech Buyとソフトランディング観測 |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,788.98 | +157.50 (+0.70%) | AI関連・半導体への資金回帰 |
| Nikkei 225 | 45,493.66 | +447.85 (+0.99%) | 海外主導の裁定買いと業績期待 |
| STOXX600 | 553.40 | -0.72 (-0.13%) | 自動車・金融の軟調とテック・資源の対抗 |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.15 % | +1 | 利下げ前倒し観測後退のわずかなリフレ |
| Germany | 2.75 % | 0 | データ待ちの様子見レンジ |
| Japan | 1.60 % | 0 | 会合通過後の横ばい推移 |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- USD/JPY 146.60（+0.13%）：米金利小反発でドル買い戻しThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- EUR/USD 1.1800（-0.04%）：材料待ちの往来The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- USD/CNY 7.1110（-0.03%）：中間値運用下の低ボラ維持The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $62.55/bbl | -0.24% | 景気指標待ちと在庫思惑の上値抑制 |
| Brent Crude Oil | $67.10/bbl | -0.22% | マクロ不確実性とドル動向の相殺 |
| natural gas | $3.12/MMBtu | +0.65% | 肩月需給のタイト化観測 |
| Gold (physical) | $3,690.00/oz | +0.22% | 実質金利横ばい下で高値圏維持 |
| silver | $42.60/oz | +0.24% | 金連動とIndustrial Demand Expectations |
| copper | $4.71000/lb | +0.11% | 中国関連ヘッドライン待ちの自律反発 |
crypto
- ビットコイン $116,300.00（-0.13%）：イベント明けの持ち高調整The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- イーサリアム $4,515.00（-0.11%）：材料難のレンジ推移The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/09/23（火・祝）グローバルPMI速報（米・欧・英）：成長減速の度合いと価格指数の再加速有無The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- 2025/09/24（水）米・新築住宅販売（8月）：住宅金利低下後の需要弾力性The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- 2025/09/25（木）独・IFO景況感（9月）：製造業の底打ち確認The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- 2025/09/26（金）米・PCEデフレーター（8月）：サービスインフレの粘着度The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Insight Summary
- 米大型グロース偏重継続、指数はイベント通過のモメンタム追随もヘッジ厚めが無難。
- 日本株は高値圏の順張り浅め、押し目待ちのspot turnoverlooks good.
- Duration is neutral to slightly long、米10年4.1–4.2%はmeeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.is appropriate.
- 為替はドル小反発の範囲取引、EUR買い戻しは段階的is safe.
- Crude oil is back in the market and gold is on the verge of a push、銅はヘッドライン待ちの薄めエクスポージャlooks good.
- Crypto maintains a light stance、指標通過後の押し目限定is safe.
English
日本語