This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 10/01/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLUG (Plug Power) | 2.93 | +25.75% | Hydrogen & Fuel Cells | None in particular. Momentum for theme-based shopping continues. |
| FLNC (Fluence Energy) | 13.45 | +24.54% | Energy Storage & Grid | None in particular. Momentum for theme-based shopping continues. |
| LAC (Lithium Americas) | 7.04 | +23.29% | Lithium Development | Ministry of Energy reports 5% investment each in main body and JV. |
| ABCL (Abcella) | 5.96 | +18.49% | Antibody Drug Discovery Platform | Momentum for renewal of 52-week high |
| QS (Quantum Scape) | 14.59 | +18.43% | all solid-state battery | Reports of technological progress rekindled expectations |
| ASTS (AST Space Mobile) | 56.94 | +16.01% | Satellite Communications and Satellite Cellular | Barclays Raises Targets and Updates BlueBird Mass Production Plan |
| ACMR (ACM Research) | 43.78 | +11.88% | Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment | None in particular. Semiconductor Thematic Shopping Flow |
| AZN (AstraZeneca) | 84.36 | +9.96% | Pharmaceuticals and Oncology | Enhertu Reportedly Under FDA Review |
| AVAV (aerovironment) | 346.08 | +9.91% | Defense/Unmanned Aerial Vehicles | Analyst upgrade report |
| SMCI (Super Micro Computer Computer) | 52.39 | +9.28% | AI Server | RS rating recovered to the 80s and technical improvement |
| MU (Micron Technology) | 182.15 | +8.86% | Memory HBM | AI memory demand observation and bullish tone |
| INOD (INODATA) | 82.36 | +6.86% | AI Data Maintenance | Announcement of GenAI Summit and higher prices |
personal impression
Lithium sharply higherandAI-related expansionThe cohabitation market looks like a cohabitation market of
LAC's DOE investment coverageoriginated fromContinuation of theme to resources and batteriesAt the same timeContinued growth of SMCI, MU, and INODdue toAI Supply Chain / Growing Demand for DataThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
In Health CareEnhertu Reviewed by AZNandsector pullThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
ASTS target increase and mass production updatedue toLively space communicationAlso.
On the other hand.PLUG, FLNC, ACMRSome of theLack of clear material, ,Momentum-driven colorsThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
I have the impression that AI semiconductors based on NVIDIA and the supply chain are back in play. Micron and others are strong, and SMCI seems to have started to move as well.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/10/01
general mood
U.S. government agencies.Partial closure beginsdue toRisk of delay in publication of statisticsand the manifestation of,Tentative Budget Negotiations Difficultassociated withUpside of policy uncertaintyThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
US macroConference Board Consumer Confidence DeclinesLingering and,Suggests a slowdown in private employmentBy intersecting headlinesConcerns about slowing growth momentumThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
The sectors areReturn to buying in pharmaceuticals and healthcare-related products, originating from policy reportsAnd,Picking up Megatech's pushPolarization by
Interest rates areSlight decline in long-term zoneandFlattening of the yield curveDirections.
The exchange rate isDollar softening directionThe beginning of the month flow of the andReturn of the yen and the euroThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Products.Gold's Listed High Price RangeAnd,Softness due to uncertain demand outlook for crude oilThe tug of war of the
as a wholeTriple factor of finances, data blockage, and financial outlookin view ofReturn to QualityandRebuild Event GuardThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,441.10 | +43.21 (+0.09%) | Even under the risk of a government shutdownDefensive and Large Cap Stocksregression of funds to |
| S&P 500 | 6,711.20 | +22.74 (+0.34%) | Falling Interest Rates and Rising Health CareValuation Allowance by |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,755.16 | +95.15 (+0.42%) | Semiconductor and AI mainstaybuying when the market is at its lowest point |
| Nikkei 225 | 44,550.85 | -381.78 (-0.85%) | Overheat clearance at higher pricesand handing off external uncertainties |
| STOXX600 | - | - | Pharmaceutical-led bottom-up and financial heavyweightstug of war (orig. a form of divination to predict whether the year will be favourable or unfavourable) |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.09 % | -2 | Statistical lag risk and demand for safe assetsDuration regression by |
| Germany | 2.72 % | -2 | Observation of slowing inflationDecline in yields due to |
| Japan | 1.64 % | 0 | Equilibrium between supply and demand after passing the meetingand wait and see |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.30 (-0.27%):Decline in long-term interest rates and early month flowsThe dollar weakened against the yen due to the
- EUR/USD 1.1805 (+0.21%):Eurozone inflation slowdown observedAlso, the decrease in interest rates due todollar softeningOffset to.
- usd/cny 7.1040 (-0.03%):Intermediate value operationNarrow range transition below.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $61.70/bbl | -0.45% | Demand Uncertainty and Inventory ObservationUpside suppression of |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.60/bbl | -0.30% | Dollar Trend and OPEC+ Expectationsoffsetting each other |
| natural gas | $3.08/MMBtu | -0.32% | a lull in supply and demand in recent monthsand temperature outlook |
| Gold (physical) | $3,754.00/oz | +0.70% | Statistical Lag and Policy UncertaintyDemand for safe assets reflecting |
| silver | $44.17/oz | +0.50% | gold bullion quotientand industrial demand expectations |
| copper | $4.70200/lb | +0.04% | Waiting for headlines during China holiday periodsmall autonomous rebound by |
crypto
- Bitcoin $115,300.00 (+0.44%):Shutdown UncertaintyLower dispersed demand.
- Ethereum $4,250.00 (+0.47%):Testing the upper range limit before the eventThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/10/02 (Thu) New Unemployment Insurance Applications, U.S.:Employment slowdown tempoInspection of (a)Publication Delay Risk(Gaze)
- 2025/10/03 (Fri) U.S. - Employment Statistics (Sep):Possible delay in publishing statisticsandwage momentumUncertainty of
- 2025/10/03 (Fri) U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing (Sep):Price index stickinessand confirming the spread of demand
- 2025/10/04 (Sat) China, Zaixin PMI:Extent of manufacturing and service expansionandcost indexTrends in
Insight Summary
- Cryptolite Light(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionPolicy and statistical headline supportA reasonable maneuvering position for the
- Government shutdown risk manifestedBelow.Return to quality and combined futures hedgingis safe
- U.S. Large Growth and Healthcare(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionbalanced distributionandPre-event staged profit-takinglooks good
- Duration slightly longer(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionmeeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.and5-10 year center curve flattening orientedis reasonable
- Dollar Soft RangeIn.Buy EUR phase and sell USD/JPY returnIt is safe to use the reverse tactic of
- Crude oil is back in the market and gold is on the verge of a pushDiversified stance of
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