This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 10/06/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRML (Critical Metals) | 11.59 | +45.24% | Rare Earths & Resources | U.S. Government Investment Consideration Report |
| IONR (Ionia) | 6.53 | +37.47% | Lithium and boron development | DOE Assistance Achievements and Lithium Policy Associations |
| FLUX (Flux Power) | 4.90 | +31.37% | Industrial Lithium Battery | FY25 Earnings Momentum Continues |
| HIVE (HIVE Digital) | 5.57 | +25.17% | Bitcoin Mining | September production 267 BTC published |
| AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) | 203.71 | +23.71% | AI Semiconductor | Large-scale supply contract with OpenAI for AI chips |
| NNE (Nano Nuclear Energy) | 53.63 | +20.54% | Small Nuclear & Fuel | S&P Global BMI Adoption Report |
| AISP (Airship AI) | 6.98 | +19.52% | Surveillance AI and Homeland Security | $11 million order from a U.S. federal law enforcement agency in September. |
| SES (SES AI) | 2.43 | +17.96% | Next Generation EV Batteries | None in particular. Lithium-related speculation |
| ACHR (Archer Aviation) | 13.64 | +17.89% | eVTOL / Flying Taxi | U.S. air show demonstration and partnership speculation |
| BITF (Bitfarms) | 3.46 | +14.95% | Bitcoin Mining | Minor highs in AMD-OpenAI contract spillover |
| IREN (Iris Energy) | 57.75 | +14.45% | Bitcoin Mining, AI/HPC | AI Cloud Expansion Expectations and Observations of New Highs |
| OPEN (Open Door Technologies) | 9.28 | +14.43% | Real Estate Tech | CEO's statement suggesting consideration of crypto settlement |
| EOSE (IOS Energy Enterprises) | 13.86 | +10.00% | Long time storage | Unico alliance coverage and options activity |
personal impression
AI infrastructure actual demand (AMD-OpenAI)resources (CRML and IONR), defense/government AI (AISP), andFunds spilled over to the minors (HIVE, BITF, IREN).
Policy and Supply Chain Strengthening HeadlinesIn addition to,Actual orders and investmentsThe composition of the market is boosted by the
The trend toward natural resources and electric power seems to be continuing unabated as a national policy.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/10/06
general mood
U.S. government agencies.Partial closure continuesdue toRe-expansion of risk of delay in publication of statisticsThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Difficulties in negotiating a tentative budgetandRise of fiscal uncertainty with the start of the fiscal yearpressured market sentiment.
On the corporate side,Alliance Headlines on AI Semiconductorsusing as a starting pointGenerative AI Related Re-stockingprogresses.
On the other hand,Guidance alert before financial resultsstill remain, and are cautious about buying up.
Europe,French Political Unrest ReportedreceivedFrench Banking Stocks PlungeAnd,STOXX600 high firings.live together.
Interest rates areSlight decline in long-term zoneandDirection of flattening of the yield curveThe credit isSpread within stable rangeThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
The exchange rate isDollar small movement, Yen return, Euro higher(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionlow volatility marketis followed by.
In the commodity market,Crude Oil Demand Uncertainty ObservationandMaintain high gold pricesThe development is a tug-of-war played by the
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,694.97 | -63.31 (-0.14%) | Government shutdown continuesandreturn to the defensiveclearing and settling of accounts |
| S&P 500 | 6,740.28 | +26.85 (+0.40%) | light easing of interest ratesandAI-related Scheduling |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,941.67 | +161.16 (+0.70%) | Semiconductor & MegatechPush to |
| Nikkei 225 | 45,290.00 | +669.50 (+1.50%) | lull in yen depreciationandForeign Demand Growth Revaluation |
| STOXX600 | 570.24 | -0.21 (-0.04%) | French political unrestandstruggle to the high (stock market, etc.) |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.10 % | -1 | Statistical Delay Riskandsafe asset demand |
| Germany | 2.73 % | -1 | Inflation slowdown observedContinuation of |
| Japan | 1.63 % | -1 | supply-demand balanceandwaiting for an external event |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.35 (+0.17%):U.S. interest rates unchangedSmall rebound below.
- EUR/USD 1.1792 (-0.11%):European Political HeadlinesandInterest Rate Decline ObservationThe struggle between the two.
- usd/cny 7.1070 (+0.06%):Intermediate value operationandreason for absence (esp. from the market)Vola suppression of the
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $61.75/bbl | -0.37% | Observation of uncertain demandandinventory forecast |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.50/bbl | -0.30% | dollar movementandOPEC+ Expectationsoffsetting each other |
| natural gas | $3.11/MMBtu | +0.32% | Shoulder Month Supply-Demand Tightening Observation |
| Gold (physical) | $3,752.00/oz | -0.21% | statistical delayandReal interest rate unchangedtug of war (orig. a form of divination to predict whether the year will be favourable or unfavourable) |
| silver | $44.05/oz | -0.56% | gold-linked beta adjustment |
| copper | $4.70600/lb | +0.04% | Waiting for China Headlinessmall autonomous rebound of |
crypto
- Bitcoin $116,420.00 (+0.53%):Government shutdown uncertaintyBelow.Distributed DemandThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- Ethereum $4,285.00 (+0.35%):waiting for an event(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionupper-range testThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- Tuesday, 2025/10/07 FOMC Minutes (September):Discussion tone after initial rate cutandnext installment (TV shows, podcasts, etc.)
- 2025/10/08 (Wed) Japan, Business Watchers' Survey (Sep.):Household and business sentimentDirection of
- 2025/10/09 (Thu) U.S. - New Unemployment Insurance Applications:Employment slowdown tempoandAvailability of statistical publication
- 2025/10/10 (Fri) Preliminary Consumer Confidence, University of Michigan, U.S. (Oct):expected inflationandhousehold sentimentChanges in
Insight Summary
- Cryptolite Light(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionHeadline supportandPre-event risk managementis reasonable
- Government shutdown risk continuesBelow.Return to QualityandIndex hedging combinationis safe
- AI-related/Healthcare(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionbipolar allocationandgradual profit-takingseems to be a good combination of
- Duration slightly longer(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionmeeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.and5-10 years central flatteningis reasonable
- U.S. dollar small movement rangeBelow.Buy EUR phase and sell USD/JPY returnShort-term rotation of the
- Sell oil back and buy goldCross-asset diversification looks good for
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