This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 10/08/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POET (Poet Technologies) | 9.22 | +17.01% | Optical communication and AI connection | $75M Funding Close Observation |
| FIG. | 71.08 | +16.83% | Design SaaS and Generation AI Linkage | Introduction of Altman's collaboration within ChatGPT |
| RXRX (Recursion) | 6.09 | +16.44% | AI Drug Discovery | Call buying brisk, bullish report reported |
| BITF (Bitfarms) | 4.00 | +15.27% | Bitcoin Mining | Production updates and risk-on associations |
| FLUX (Flux Power) | 5.60 | +14.99% | Industrial Lithium Battery | FY25 Earnings Momentum Bullish Rating Continued |
| AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) | 235.56 | +11.37% | AI Semiconductor | Large supply and investment partnership with OpenAI |
| Dell Technologies, Inc. | 164.53 | +9.05% | AI Server/PC | Long-term growth outlook revised upward |
| EOSE (Ios Energy) | 14.82 | +8.49% | Long time storage | Strategic alliance with Unico and option activity |
| JMIA (Jumia Technologies) | 12.63 | +6.22% | African EC | RBC Upgrade Aftermath |
personal impression
AI-driven real demand newsis the center of the market.
Major AMD x OpenAI partnershipandDELL raises long-term outlookandBoosting the entire AI supply chainThe funds also continued to spread to other power themes such as energy storage (EOSE), batteries (FLUX), BTC miners (BITF), and others.
On the other hand,Capital policy (large POET procurement) and influencer effect (introduction of FIG's ChatGPT linkage) emerged as strong factors for individual stocks.
Healthcare's RXRX is in an options demand-driven uptrendis a dense development.
Personal,Phase of continued high pricesonPreserve cash with partial gainsThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
whilePreparing for a pushWhile proceeding with thePossibility that the adjustment will not occur as much as expected.Also based on,Neutral and light stanceThe company maintains a
In terms of brand name,Figma in motionin conjunction withAdd number of sheetsThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
EOSE is a tug of war between gains and additionsWhile continuing toPL, RGTI and JMIA maintain bullish stanceThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Good upward trend for UNHIt is showing andConsidering addingThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
On the other hand,UUUUU and SESschool (e.g. of ikebana)We want to take our chances while watching for nervous price movements.The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/10/08
general mood
U.S. government agencies.Partial closure continuesAnd,Policy Uncertainty Conditions Across the FOMC Minutes ReleaseThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
In the agenda,Recognition of progress in slowing inflationandEmphasis on forward-looking data dependenceOn the other hand, it is shown that theRange of demand decelerationand ... andEmployment StickinessThe variation in views over the
The U.S. macro is,Risk of delay in publication of statisticsin the background,Relative importance of weekly indicators and business conditions surveyis rising.
Europe,Lingering effects of HICP core slowdownandAuthorities pigeon-holed statementsBy a combination of,Interest Rate Decline Expectationspersists.
The Japanese market,Sense of flatness in the Business Watchers Surveyandlull in yen depreciationReceived,Reevaluating Foreign Demand Growth Stocksprogresses.
In commodities,Crude Oil Demand Uncertainty ObservationandMaintain high gold pricesThe development continues the tug-of-war between the
Fiscal Negotiations, FOMC Minutes, Corporate GuidanceThe nervousness of the market is a sign of a nervous phase with a view to
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,820.12 | +64.32 (+0.14%) | After the passage of the agendareturn to the defensiveand large-cap supply and demand |
| S&P 500 | 6,744.20 | -8.20 (-0.12%) | guidance warningand interest rate small movementsreorganization of valuations |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,984.11 | +53.56 (+0.23%) | AI semiconductor and data center relatedbuying when the market is at its lowest point |
| Nikkei 225 | 45,344.76 | -135.44 (-0.30%) | lull in yen depreciationand before the event.profit-taking |
| STOXX600 | 570.20 | -0.90 (-0.16%) | Dove Expectationsandfinancial weightoffsetting each other |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.08 % | -1 | Pre- and post-meeting duration regressionand demand for safe assets |
| Germany | 2.71 % | -1 | lingering effects of slowing inflationand expectations of pigeonholing authorities' statements |
| Japan | 1.63 % | 0 | supply-demand balanceand waiting for external events |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.05 (-0.14%):U.S. long-term interest rates declined slightlyand waiting for the eventdollar backlashThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- EUR/USD 1.1802 (+0.06%):Dove ExpectationsandDollar softening slightlyThe antagonism of the
- usd/cny 7.1080 (-0.01%):Intermediate value operationLower low vol range.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $61.55/bbl | -0.08% | Observation of uncertain demandand restraining the upward movement of the inventory outlook |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.40/bbl | -0.08% | dollar movementand OPEC+ expectations offset |
| natural gas | $3.13/MMBtu | +0.32% | Shoulder Month Supply-Demand Tighteningspeculation |
| Gold (physical) | $3,760.50/oz | +0.07% | Statistical Delay RiskandReal interest rate unchangedHedging demand for |
| silver | $44.20/oz | -0.11% | gold-linked beta adjustment |
| copper | $4.70650/lb | +0.01% | Waiting for China Headlinessmall autonomous rebound of |
crypto
- Bitcoin $116,450.00 (-0.39%):waiting for an eventandsmall change in the U.S. dollar(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionLifting Height AdjustmentThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- Ethereum $4,300.00 (+0.12%):Waiting for large materials(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionupper-range testThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/10/09 (Thu) U.S. - New Unemployment Insurance Applications:Employment slowdown tempoandWhether or not to publish statistics
- 2025/10/10 (Fri) Preliminary Consumer Confidence, University of Michigan, U.S. (Oct):expected inflationandhousehold sentiment
- 2025/10/10 (Fri) U.K. Monthly GDP (August):Service ContributionandDegree of growth slowdown
- 2025/10/11 (Sat) China - Monthly Report on Financing (September):credit impulseandInfrastructure Investment Momentum
Insight Summary
- Cryptolite Light(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionHeadline supportandPre-event risk managementis reasonable
- Policy Uncertainty and Agenda Passageassociated withReturn to QualityandIndex hedging combinationIt is safe to continue the
- AI-related and Healthcare(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionbipolar allocationandgradual profit-takingseems to be a good combination of
- Duration slightly longer(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionmeeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.andFlattening of 5-10 year centeris reasonable
- U.S. dollar small movement rangeBelow.Buy EUR phase and sell USD/JPY returnShort-term rotation of the
- Crude oil is back in the market and gold is on the way out, ,Copper is a thin exposures waiting for headlines.looks good
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