This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 10/09/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAES (Seal Sq.) | 6.09 | +39.68% | Quantum Resistant Security | Joint development partnership with TSS of the U.S. for quantum resistant chips |
| WWR (Westwater Resources) | 1.98 | +29.41% | critical mineral | Ripple Effects of Reported Chinese Rare Earth Export Restrictions |
| SERV (SERV Robotics) | 17.68 | +28.63% | Autonomous delivery robot | Announced partnership with DoorDash |
| CRML (Critical Metals) | 14.71 | +24.77% | Rare Earths & Resources | Supply agreement for REalloys and regulatory press tailwind |
| PATH (UI PATH) | 18.51 | +18.81% | RPA and agent automation | Continued rise after announcement of OpenAI collaboration |
| USAR (US Air Rare Earths) | 31.07 | +14.99% | critical mineral | Aftermath of White House talks coverage |
| NB (Niocorp Developments) | 9.84 | +12.20% | critical mineral | Rare Earth Regulation Press Spillover |
| UUUU (Energy Fuels) | 19.70 | +9.44% | Uranium Rare Earths | Sectoral Spillover |
| RGTI (Righetti Computing) | 47.11 | +8.98% | quantum computing | Continued evaluation of target price increase |
| NBIS (Nevius Group) | 132.64 | +8.72% | AI Cloud | Continued bullish coverage after MS contract |
| SES (SES AI) | 2.98 | +7.97% | Next Generation EV Batteries | New product announcements and 52-week high coverage |
personal impression
China's Rare Earth Export Restrictionsis the trigger.
USAR, CRML, WWR, NB(lessening the significance or value of the previous word) the likes ofCritical Mineral RelatedThe funds are concentrated in theU.S. government policy of internal productioncoupled withpolicy driven marketaspect.
On the other hand,Automation × AIBut there is a series of clear materials.
SERV x DoorDash Partnership, ,Enhanced PATH x OpenAI collaborationSuch as,actual demand headlinetriggered buying.
RGTI target raised in quantum fieldThe market will continue to be driven by theNBIS in the AI Cloudbe beyond one's controlBullish Coveragefollowed in the background.
DailyRising Issues WatchandContinuing Factor ChecksBy,Movements in market sensitive themes and categoriesby early detection.Rare earths, resources and lithium-related trendsA sense of being able to ride to a certain degree on the
After all,The Importance of Continuous ObservationThis is where I feel again that the
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/10/09
general mood
U.S. government agencies.Partial closure continuesandRemaining risk of delayed statistical releaseThe budget is still uncertain. The outlook for budget approval remains uncertain,Negotiations stalemate between ruling and opposition partiesThe situation continues to be that the
Pigeonhole Assessment of FOMC MinutesAnd,Wait-and-see attitude awaiting statements from key figuresThe market is taking a cautious stance, with a mix of
In U.S. macro,Interpreting Weekly Unemployment Insurance StatisticsandLighter positions before the announcement of Michigan expected inflationprogresses.
Europe,Lingering effects of HICP core slowdownandauthorities pigeonholing statementsusing as leverageInterest Rate Decline Expectationscontinues.
The Japanese market,lull in yen depreciationagainst the backdrop ofReevaluating Foreign Demand Growth Stocksproceeded,Return of foreign arbitrageis underpinned by the
Commodity markets are,Crude Oil Demand Uncertainty ObservationandMaintain high gold pricesThe development continues to be a tug-of-war between the
Current U.S. Government Shutdown Status
After October 1,Tentative federal budget (continuing resolution) expiresThe U.S. government agencies are partially closed due to the Conflicts between the ruling and opposition parties continue,No new budget proposal or temporary extension measures have been enacted.The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Administrative and Data Implications
Due to this closure,About 900,000 federal employees in non-essential sectors are on furlough (furlough)The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Also,Delayed or suspended publication of key statistics, including Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of CommerceThere is a growing concern that
By this,The market's focus on weekly data and private survey indicatorsis intensifying.
Market Spillover
Due to prolonged fiscal negotiationsRising policy uncertaintyAnd,Economic data blocking riskis cooling investor sentiment,
Expectations for a rebound after the closure is lifted" are also being considered, etc,A wait-and-see mood and a push-and-seek attitude coexist.The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,684.41 | -131.87 (-0.28%) | Under policy uncertaintyreturn to the defensiveand handing over |
| S&P 500 | 6,764.58 | +8.94 (+0.13%) | light easing of interest ratesandMegatech ResilienceValue Allowance of |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 23,062.62 | +17.48 (+0.08%) | Semiconductor and AI mainstaybuying when the market is at its lowest point |
| Nikkei 225 | 45,512.80 | +168.04 (+0.37%) | lull in yen depreciationandReturn of foreign arbitrage buying |
| STOXX600 | 570.10 | -0.10 (-0.02%) | dove expectationandfinancial weightoffsetting each other |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.07 % | 0 | Post-Meeting Duration Regressionand demand for safe assets |
| Germany | 2.71 % | 0 | lingering effects of slowing inflationpersistence of |
| Japan | 1.63 % | 0 | supply-demand balanceand waiting for external events |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 145.95 (-0.07%):U.S. long-term interest rates declined slightlyand before the event.dollar backlashThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- EUR/USD 1.1802 (+0.06%):dove expectationandDollar softening slightlyThe antagonism of the
- usd/cny 7.1080 (-0.01%):Intermediate value operationLower low vol range.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $61.65/bbl | +0.16% | Inventory speculation and demand uncertaintybalance |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.48/bbl | +0.12% | dollar movementand OPEC+ expectations.plus and minus equal zero |
| natural gas | $3.14/MMBtu | +0.32% | Shoulder Month Supply-Demand Tighteningspeculation |
| Gold (physical) | $3,762.00/oz | +0.03% | Statistical Delay RiskandReal interest rate unchangedHedging demand for |
| silver | $44.22/oz | +0.05% | gold bullion quotientand industrial demand expectations |
| copper | $4.70700/lb | +0.01% | Waiting for China Headlinessmall autonomous rebound of |
crypto
- Bitcoin $116,200.00 (-0.21%):waiting for an eventandsmall change in the U.S. dollar(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionLifting Height AdjustmentThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- Ethereum $4,305.00 (+0.12%):Waiting for large materials(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionupper-range testThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/10/10 (Fri) Preliminary Consumer Confidence, University of Michigan, U.S. (Oct):inflation indexandhousehold sentimentChanges in
- 2025/10/10 (Fri) U.K. Monthly GDP (August):Service ContributionandDegree of growth slowdownInspection of
- 2025/10/11 (Sat) China, Loan and Social Loan Scale (September, estimated to be released within the period):credit impulseDirection of
- 2025/10/15 (Wed) U.S. Retail Sales (Sep):Elasticity of real consumptionandoveremphasis on serviceVerification of
Insight Summary
- Cryptolite Light(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionHeadline supportandPre-event risk managementis reasonable
- Policy Uncertainty and Data Interception RiskUnder ContinuationReturn to QualityandIndex hedging combinationis safe
- AI-related and Healthcare(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionbipolar allocationandgradual profit-takingseems to be a good combination of
- Duration neutral to slightly long(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionmeeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.and5-10 years central flatteningis reasonable
- U.S. dollar small movement rangeIn.Buy EUR phase and sell USD/JPY returnShort-term rotation of the
- Crude oil is back in the market and gold is on the way out, ,Copper is a thin exposures waiting for headlines.looks good
English
日本語