This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 10/13/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRML (Critical Metals) | 23.28 | +55.41% | Rare Earths & Resources | Reports of U.S. government investment consideration and tailwind from rare earth regulations |
| ASPI (ASP Isotopes) | 13.32 | +31.49% | Isotope and nuclear medicine | Scavenging for investor event announcements |
| WWR (Westwater Resources) | 2.56 | +29.29% | critical mineral | Ripple Effects of China's Tighter Rare Earth Export Controls |
| BITF (Bitfarms) | 5.39 | +28.33% | Bitcoin Mining | BTC-linked rise and volume increase |
| BE (Bloom Energy) | 109.91 | +26.52% | Fuel Cell and Data Center Power Supply | AI Power Supply Demand Observation and Continued Large Scale Planning Reporting |
| RGTI (Righetti Computing) | 54.91 | +25.02% | quantum computing | 2 Novera units, approx. 1 TP4T5.7M orders lingering |
| EOSE (Ios Energy) | 17.05 | +23.27% | Long time storage | Unico alliance coverage and options activity |
| QBTS (D-Wave Quantum) | 40.62 | +23.02% | quantum annealing | B. Riley Target Raised and Quantum Sizing Continues |
| LGO (Largo) | 2.46 | +23.02% | Vanadium & Energy Storage Materials | Tariff Impact and Operating Plan Corporate Update |
| BBAI (Big Bear AI) | 8.81 | +22.02% | AI Analysis & National Defense | Lingering SMX linkage coverage for the Navy |
| LTBR (Light Bridge) | 26.91 | +21.88% | Next Generation Nuclear Fuel | Lingering ATM Plan Disclosure |
| FLNC (Fluence Energy) | 15.89 | +21.39% | Energy Storage & Grid | Technical improvement and AI energy storage demand speculation |
personal impression
Plunge at the end of last week triggered by the U.S.-China rare earths diplomatic issue (tariffs)A complete turnaround from the
Headline tone softeningin the background,Resource themes starting with rare earth regulationsandAI Infrastructure/Quantum Field Real Demand Headlinesare running concurrently.
CRML, WWR, and U.S. supply chain-related stocksin order toPolicy-driven capital inflowsfollowed by,
RGTI/QBTSschool (e.g. of ikebana)Orders and target raisingtaking advantage ofMaintain momentumThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Further,BE of AI Power Supply, ,EOSE and FLNC in the energy storage fieldAlso,Spillover of data center demandThe buying cycle is progressing against the backdrop of
Only a few stocks were taken up, though,A day that showed a big rebound in the market as a wholeThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Personal,Large buyback of positions that had been partially cashed in at the end of last weekI was very pleased with the results.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/10/13
general mood
Softer tone in U.S.-China trade headlinesAnd,AI semiconductor and data center collaboration coverageDue to the tailwind ofrecovering of the risk appetiteThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
U.S. Treasury markets closed for Columbus Day holidaynext to (esp. living next door to)Limited interest rate disseminationIn the midst of becoming,Stock-led improvement in sentimentprogresses.
In Europe,Equity Rating Raisedand ... andInflow of review purchasesis the support,STOXX600 rebounded.The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Japan.Closed on Sports DayWhile,Foreign-led flowis observed in the development.
In commodities,Gold at all-time highsSh,Crude oil rebounded autonomously from the previous week's lowsThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
General,Unwinding of trade risksandGenerative AI-related SchedulingThe,Cover purchase of risk assetsinduced.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,067.58 | +587.98 (+1.29%) | Receding trade risks and buying back of large-cap stocks |
| S&P 500 | 6,654.72 | +102.21 (+1.56%) | The softening of the tone of the President's remarks andAI-related traction |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,694.61 | +490.18 (+2.21%) | Semiconductor and megatech ledRebound of |
| Nikkei 225 | - | +0.00 (+0.00%) | Closed on Sports Day |
| STOXX600 | 566.63 | +2.47 (+0.44%) | Raise Ratings and Review Buy |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | - | - | U.S. Treasury market closed for holiday(Columbus Day) |
| Germany | 2.73 % | -1 | Observation of slowing inflationThe aftermath of |
| Japan | - | - | closed on public holidaysFluctuations unobservable in |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 152.45 (-0.46%)The dollar is weak due to the softening of the trade tone and thin trading due to the holiday factor.
- EUR/USD in the high 1.07s (around +0.21 TP3T): The tug-of-war between lingering eurozone inflation slowdown and dollar supply/demand.
- USD/CNY near 7.12 (around +0.11 TP3T): Range under the midpoint guidance.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $59.79/bbl | +1.51% | Trade risk easing and self-sustaining rebound |
| Brent Crude Oil | $63.32/bbl | +0.94% | Supply-Demand Balance View and Review Buying |
| natural gas | $3.05/MMBtu | +0.30% | Tightening supply-demand speculation in recent months |
| Gold (physical) | $4,067.79/oz | +2% Super | Even in the receding phase of trade uncertaintymaintaining a high price range |
| silver | $51.70/oz | +3% Super | gold bullion quotientand tight ground |
| copper | $4.70/lb | +0.2% | China Supply/Demand Outlook and Support for Higher Stocks |
crypto
- Bitcoin $ around 116,000 (+1-2%): Risk appetite under high stock prices and AI theme reversion.
- Ethereum $4,250 approx (+1%): Testing the upper end of the range waiting for the event.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/10/15 (Wed) U.S. Retail Sales (Sep):Elasticity of real consumptionandoveremphasis on serviceVerification of
- 2025/10/16 (Thu) U.S. - Housing Starts/Construction Permits (Sep):interest rate sensitivityandinventory cycleInspection of
- 2025/10/16 (Thu) Eurozone, HICP revision (Sep):Degree of core slowdownReconfirmation of
- 2025/10/17 (Fri) China - Trade Statistics (Sep):External Demand Momentumandcommodity demandClues for
Insight Summary
- Easing Trade Headlinesassociated withrecovering of the risk appetitebe beyond one's controlMaintain staged hedging in futuresis safe
- AI-related reignitedAssumptions.Megatech thicker, economy sensitive lighterdistribution looks good.
- Europe benefits from lower interest rate expectationstargetingQuality Growth + DefensiveA basket of reasonable
- Re-pricing of interest rates after the U.S. Treasury holidayWith an eye on theDuration neutral to slightly longis safe
- Crude oil is back in the market and gold is on the way outCross-asset diversification looks good for
- Exchange rates are in a low volatile rangeAssumptions.Buy EUR phase, USD/JPY reverseShort-term turnover of is appropriate for
（Note: Japan is closed on national holidays. Yields on U.S. Treasuries are for reference only as they are closed on a holiday. Currencies and commodities are approximations based on closing prices or closing quotes.
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