market analysis

U.S. stocks slightly lower on the eve of CPI, but supply/demand concerns spike on news of lithium mine shutdown by China's CATL. Semiconductors and resource stocks led the rally.

On August 7, 2025, the NASDAQ hit a new high on Apple's investment report, while the S&P 500 was slightly lower. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.34% and the dollar remained strong, while oil fell to the $63 level and gold weakened. The selective risk-on trend continued, with money going into high-tech stocks and Japanese and European business-sensitive stocks, despite high interest rates and a strong dollar.

On August 7, 2025, the NASDAQ hit a new high on Apple's investment report, while the S&P 500 was slightly lower. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.34% and the dollar remained strong, while oil fell to the $63 level and gold weakened. The selective risk-on trend continued, with money going into high-tech stocks and Japanese and European business-sensitive stocks, despite high interest rates and a strong dollar.

On August 5, 2025, U.S. stocks were slightly lower due to stagnation in the U.S. service sector and tariff concerns. The dollar strengthens and the US long-term interest rate advances to the 4.21 TP3T level, while oil continues to fall to the $66/bbl level. European and Asian stocks are steady and selective risk-on continues.

On August 5, 2025, U.S. stocks were slightly lower due to stagnation in the U.S. service sector and tariff concerns. The dollar strengthens and the US long-term interest rate advances to the 4.21 TP3T level, while oil continues to fall to the $66/bbl level. European and Asian stocks are steady and selective risk-on continues.

After the previous day's sharp decline, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ rebounded, up 1.47% and 1.95%, respectively, on renewed speculation of a Fed September rate cut. The U.S. dollar softened on lower U.S. interest rates, and gold was slightly higher. Crude oil continued to fall on OPEC+ production hike speculation, while funds selectively flowed into high-tech and safe-haven assets.

On August 1, the S&P 500 and Dow plunged 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively, on a combination of sharply lower employment data and additional tariffs. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.37%, but the dollar remained strong, oil soft, and gold flat. Risk-off was evident, and stocks at high levels became more selective.

On July 31, the market remained higher with the Dow down 0.7% and the S&P 500 down only 0.4% as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.37% and the dollar continued to strengthen. The Nikkei 225 rose 1% to 41,000 on the back of a weaker yen. Energy was firm at $69 WTI, while Bitcoin hovered near $118,500, and risk appetite became more selective.

On July 30, 2025, the dollar strengthens as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises to 4.37% without any indication of when the FOMC will cut rates after passing the FOMC meeting; the S&P 500 remains higher with a small decline of -0.1%; and selective buying continues in the mega tech sector. Crude oil rises above the $70 level, while gold adjusts to $3,352, but selective risk-on continues.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell back after a series of rallies and adjusted higher. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.33%, the dollar softened, and crude oil surged to the $69 level. Gold rallied slightly, keeping markets quietly risk-on ahead of the FOMC meeting.