market analysis

In a shortened week before U.S. Independence Day, the tech-driven S&P 500 hit a record high. While dollar weakness paused, long-term interest rates diverged between the U.S.↑Europe and the U.S.↓Europe, and crude oil and metals rebounded. While the selective risk-on trend continued, the yen continued to fall to the 144-yen level.

On July 3, 2025, the U.S. tech-driven S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.35% and the dollar is soft at 144 yen. Crude oil is down slightly, but gold is firm and selective risk-on continues. CPI and OPEC+ in focus after the Independence Day holiday.

On July 2, 2025, the market was buoyed by U.S. tech buying, with the S&P 500 hitting new highs and risk-on accelerating. The yen and the euro held at ¥143 and $1.18, respectively, amid a weaker dollar. Crude oil and copper rebounded, and safe-haven assets were also firm at $3,350. Employment data and OPEC+ meeting are next in focus.

Markets on June 30, 2025 saw the U.S. dollar index soften to the 96 level on lower U.S. long-term interest rates; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs led by the generation AI; the Nikkei 225 also rose on the back of a weaker yen. Gold was bought on dollar weakness, while crude oil was slightly lower. The market environment is described as a mixture of risk asset preference and a return to quality.

Crude oil plunged -5% weekly on Israel-Iran ceasefire speculation and inflation fears receded. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.25%, led by the S&P 500 +11% weekly amid a weaker dollar, and the generative AI-related market. Diversification of funds into gold and bitcoin also continued, strengthening the risk-on market.

Risk-on continues as Israeli-Iranian ceasefire holds and U.S. inflation slows; S&P 500 hits new highs, 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falls to 4.26%, and dollar index is 97. Oil at $65 eases inflation fears, gold and bitcoin steady.

Risk-on continues as the Israel-Iran ceasefire holds and U.S. interest rates fall; the S&P 500 is as high as 6,141, the dollar index falls to 97, and the euro strengthens. Crude oil is slightly higher, gold and bitcoin are steady, and the complex situation is complicated by the coexistence of high stock prices and demand for safe-haven assets.

Crude oil rebounded as geopolitical risks receded due to the Israel-Iran ceasefire, the S&P 500 remained high, and the dollar softened as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.3%. High-tech stocks and bitcoin were bought, and the complex terrain of rising equities and demand for safe-haven assets continued to coexist.

Money flowed into risk assets on reports of a Middle East ceasefire; the S&P 500 and NASDAQ regained their highs, and bitcoin retook the $100,000 level. Crude oil plunges 6%, easing inflationary pressures, and the dollar weakens slightly. Interest rate cut speculation resurfaces ahead of the U.S. PCE.

Market Insights for June 24, 2025: Risk assets rebound on Iran-Israel ceasefire reports, energy markets plunge, bonds and gold firm. The U.S. tech-led rally continues, while a sharp drop in oil prices has reduced inflation fears and paused the dollar's rise.