market analysis

On July 31, the market remained higher with the Dow down 0.7% and the S&P 500 down only 0.4% as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.37% and the dollar continued to strengthen. The Nikkei 225 rose 1% to 41,000 on the back of a weaker yen. Energy was firm at $69 WTI, while Bitcoin hovered near $118,500, and risk appetite became more selective.

On July 30, 2025, the dollar strengthens as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises to 4.37% without any indication of when the FOMC will cut rates after passing the FOMC meeting; the S&P 500 remains higher with a small decline of -0.1%; and selective buying continues in the mega tech sector. Crude oil rises above the $70 level, while gold adjusts to $3,352, but selective risk-on continues.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell back after a series of rallies and adjusted higher. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.33%, the dollar softened, and crude oil surged to the $69 level. Gold rallied slightly, keeping markets quietly risk-on ahead of the FOMC meeting.

On July 28, 2025, markets follow the U.S.-EU tariff agreement with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ at consecutive highs. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.42%, the dollar softens, and oil rebounds to the mid-$65 range, while gold adjusts to $3,310. Quiet risk-on continues, albeit at higher prices.

On July 25, 2025, the U.S. stocks are at five-day highs on good earnings and progress in tariff negotiations, with the S&P 500 at its highest level in five days. The U.S. dollar strengthens while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note declines to 4.39% and oil falls to the $65 level. Gold is looking for a push as selective risk-on continues.

On July 24, 2025, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit new highs again on good high-tech earnings and progress in tariff talks. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.41%, strengthening the dollar, and oil rebounded to the $66 level. Gold, on the other hand, was soft and the market remained selectively risk-on.

The Dow hit the 45,000 level and the S&P 500 reached new highs on the strength of the U.S.-Japan trade agreement. The U.S. 10-year yield rose to 4.38% on bond selling, while the dollar softened and gold and silver held firm. Crude oil rebounded to the $65/bbl level, and investors are becoming more selective while risk-on continues.

On July 22, 2025, the markets adjusted with the S&P 500 reaching new daily highs, while the NASDAQ adjusted. Gold and silver rallied as the U.S. dollar weakened on lower 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. The balanced risk-on market continues, with oil softening to the $65/bbl level, while stocks are strong, led by large tech.

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit new highs. High-tech stocks, gold, and silver were bought as U.S. long-term interest rates fell, while crude oil fell back on signs of easing supply-demand balance. The market is "balanced" with risk-on, but also with a preference for safe assets.

On July 18, 2025, U.S. stocks paused at their highs, long-term interest rates fell, and the dollar was limitedly weak. Europe is flat, Japanese stocks fall back on election caution. Funds turn to tech and energy, oil rises and gold flat. Quiet risk-on mood continues.