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AI infrastructure and resources remain bipolar (09/29/2025)

AI infrastructure and resources remain bipolar (09/29/2025)market analysis

This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.

Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)

Watch List (based on closing price on 09/29/2025)

name of a or the Buddhaclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)volatilitythemeinsight
FLUX (Flux Power)4.47+17.63%Industrial Lithium BatteryFY25 Earnings Momentum Continues
DNA (Zinco Bioworks)13.23+14.04%synthetic biology(None)
CLSK (Clean Spark)14.87+14.74%Bitcoin MiningAnnounced $100 million credit limit secured by BTC
HOOD (Robin Hood)136.72+12.27%Fintech BrokerExpansion of "Banking" and observation of new highs
EOSE (Ios Energy)11.17+10.38%Long time storageNo material, trend continues
ADUR (Adulo Clean Technologies)13.77+9.98%Chemical Recycling / PlasticsNo material, but uptrend continues
WDC (Western Digital)116.74+9.23%Storage HDD/SSDBullish report and target raised by major securities
AREC (American Resources)3.01+8.27%Critical Minerals & Rare EarthsReElement Signs Rare Earth Offtake Agreement with POSCO
APP (Applavin)712.36+6.34%AdTech & AI AdvertisingTargets raised successively higher
LTBR (Light Bridge)22.74+6.06%Next Generation Nuclear FuelLingering ATM Plan Disclosure
LMND (Lemonade)54.37+5.72%AI InsuranceNo material, but momentum continues?

personal impression

AI-related x Power & DataandresourcesThe bipolar progression of the
WDC isBullish report and PT raisedReassessing data storage demand at the APP, the APP isSimultaneous raising of analystsContinued to chase higher prices at
CLSK in Mining.Securing BTC collateral creditFlux strengthened its financing side withearnings momentumContinuation. Resources are available at AREC'sOff-take for POSCORevisited in
On the other hand, DNA, EOSE, ADUR, LMND, etc.Synchronous high of unknown materialThere are also some stocks with high momentum, and we can sense a trend of speculation after a lull in the adjustment.

market insight

Analysis Date] 2025/09/29

general mood

In the U.S., the risk of partial closure of government agencies is once again on the mind before the end of the fiscal year.
Bipartisan negotiations over the provisional budget will be difficult, and practical risks, such as flight delays, are a reality for airlines.
On the indicator front, consumer confidence remains weak,The mood is wait-and-see ahead of this week's CB consumer confidence and employment-related statistics.In policy, we have just passed the first rate cut and are waiting for officials to speak, and continue to look for clues as to when the next rate cut will be made.

Risk assets continue to favor megatech-driven preference, while shutdown uncertainty and earnings clarity restrain upside. Interest rates reverted to duration with US long-term rates slowly declining. Currencies are back and forth with the dollar rebounding slightly, while European currencies are on the move.
In commodities, gold was higher on safe-haven demand, while crude oil was slightly softer due to demand uncertainty and inventory concerns.
In general, the situation is one of a return to quality while keeping an eye on tail risk in the face of the "triple event" of policy, fiscal, and economic data.

equity

indexclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous daybackground
Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones)46,180.50-66.79 (-0.14%)Mixed gains in defensive highs and economic sensitivities
S&P 5006,650.12+6.42 (+0.10%)Megatech Resilienceand lower long-term interest rates valuations allow
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations22,560.10+76.03 (+0.34%)Semiconductor and AI-relatedPush to
Nikkei 22545,560.21+205.22 (+0.45%)Weak Yen andArbitrage buying by foreign companies
STOXX600551.20-1.10 (-0.20%)Financial and automotive heavyweights and underpinnings of resources and tech

bond

home (i.e. hometown, home country)10-year yieldChange from previous day (bp)Comment
United States of America4.12 %-1of the inflation indicator assumption line.duration regression
Germany2.75 %-1Economic slowdown in Europequality orientation
Japan1.64 %0After passing the meetingsupply-demand balance

exchange (e.g. foreign)

  • usd/jpy 146.70 (+0.27%): High U.S. interest rates and low stock market flowsdollar repurchaseThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
  • EUR/USD 1.1780 (-0.09%): Material difficulties incorrespondenceand a small rebound in the dollar.
  • usd/cny 7.1060 (-0.03%): under the mid-value operationMaintain low volatilityThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.

commodity

list of articlesclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous daydriver (of a vehicle)
WTI crude oil$62.10/bbl-0.56%Demand uncertainty and inventory speculationupward price control
Brent Crude Oil$66.85/bbl-0.22%Macro Uncertainty and Dollar Trendsplus and minus equal zero
natural gas$3.10/MMBtu-0.32%of supply and demand in recent monthslull
Gold (physical)$3,730.00/oz-0.49%Real interest rate unchangedstruggle to the high (stock market, etc.)
silver$44.10/oz-1.63%gold-linkedbeta adjustment
copper$4.69800/lb-0.15%Waiting for China Headlinesrange

crypto

  • Bitcoin $114,510.00 (+2.00%): After the eventShort-covering and recovery of risk appetiteThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
  • Ethereum $4,209.70 (+1.92%): Waiting for large materialupper-range testThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.

Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)

  • Tuesday, 2025/09/30 Preliminary Eurozone HICP (September)Core: Degree of deceleration and implications for interest rate outlook
  • 2025/09/30 (Tue) U.S. Consumer Confidence (Sep): Employment Indicators and Income Expectations Confirming the Tone of the
  • 2025/10/01 (Wed) U.S. ISM Manufacturing/China PMI (Sep)Tipping Point Verification of the Manufacturing Cycle
  • 2025/10/02 (Thu) U.S. - New applications for unemployment insurance: Confirmation of employment slowdown tempo

Insight Summary

  • U.S. Large Growth DominanceUnder ContinuationFutures hedging combinationModerate risk-on of
  • Pushing rotation of Japanese stocksandHigher weight on foreign demand growthMobile allocation of
  • Duration slightly longer(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionmeeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.andCurve flattening biasmaintenance
  • Dollar Small Rebound RangeBelow.Buy EUR phase, USD/JPY reverseRange Tactics of
  • Sell oil back and buy goldCross-asset diversification of
  • Cryptolite Light(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionPost-event volatility reduction period response

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