This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 09/29/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLUX (Flux Power) | 4.47 | +17.63% | Industrial Lithium Battery | FY25 Earnings Momentum Continues |
| DNA (Zinco Bioworks) | 13.23 | +14.04% | synthetic biology | (None) |
| CLSK (Clean Spark) | 14.87 | +14.74% | Bitcoin Mining | Announced $100 million credit limit secured by BTC |
| HOOD (Robin Hood) | 136.72 | +12.27% | Fintech Broker | Expansion of "Banking" and observation of new highs |
| EOSE (Ios Energy) | 11.17 | +10.38% | Long time storage | No material, trend continues |
| ADUR (Adulo Clean Technologies) | 13.77 | +9.98% | Chemical Recycling / Plastics | No material, but uptrend continues |
| WDC (Western Digital) | 116.74 | +9.23% | Storage HDD/SSD | Bullish report and target raised by major securities |
| AREC (American Resources) | 3.01 | +8.27% | Critical Minerals & Rare Earths | ReElement Signs Rare Earth Offtake Agreement with POSCO |
| APP (Applavin) | 712.36 | +6.34% | AdTech & AI Advertising | Targets raised successively higher |
| LTBR (Light Bridge) | 22.74 | +6.06% | Next Generation Nuclear Fuel | Lingering ATM Plan Disclosure |
| LMND (Lemonade) | 54.37 | +5.72% | AI Insurance | No material, but momentum continues? |
personal impression
AI-related x Power & DataandresourcesThe bipolar progression of the
WDC isBullish report and PT raisedReassessing data storage demand at the APP, the APP isSimultaneous raising of analystsContinued to chase higher prices at
CLSK in Mining.Securing BTC collateral creditFlux strengthened its financing side withearnings momentumContinuation. Resources are available at AREC'sOff-take for POSCORevisited in
On the other hand, DNA, EOSE, ADUR, LMND, etc.Synchronous high of unknown materialThere are also some stocks with high momentum, and we can sense a trend of speculation after a lull in the adjustment.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/09/29
general mood
In the U.S., the risk of partial closure of government agencies is once again on the mind before the end of the fiscal year.
Bipartisan negotiations over the provisional budget will be difficult, and practical risks, such as flight delays, are a reality for airlines.
On the indicator front, consumer confidence remains weak,The mood is wait-and-see ahead of this week's CB consumer confidence and employment-related statistics.In policy, we have just passed the first rate cut and are waiting for officials to speak, and continue to look for clues as to when the next rate cut will be made.
Risk assets continue to favor megatech-driven preference, while shutdown uncertainty and earnings clarity restrain upside. Interest rates reverted to duration with US long-term rates slowly declining. Currencies are back and forth with the dollar rebounding slightly, while European currencies are on the move.
In commodities, gold was higher on safe-haven demand, while crude oil was slightly softer due to demand uncertainty and inventory concerns.
In general, the situation is one of a return to quality while keeping an eye on tail risk in the face of the "triple event" of policy, fiscal, and economic data.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,180.50 | -66.79 (-0.14%) | Mixed gains in defensive highs and economic sensitivities |
| S&P 500 | 6,650.12 | +6.42 (+0.10%) | Megatech Resilienceand lower long-term interest rates valuations allow |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,560.10 | +76.03 (+0.34%) | Semiconductor and AI-relatedPush to |
| Nikkei 225 | 45,560.21 | +205.22 (+0.45%) | Weak Yen andArbitrage buying by foreign companies |
| STOXX600 | 551.20 | -1.10 (-0.20%) | Financial and automotive heavyweights and underpinnings of resources and tech |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.12 % | -1 | of the inflation indicator assumption line.duration regression |
| Germany | 2.75 % | -1 | Economic slowdown in Europequality orientation |
| Japan | 1.64 % | 0 | After passing the meetingsupply-demand balance |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.70 (+0.27%): High U.S. interest rates and low stock market flowsdollar repurchaseThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- EUR/USD 1.1780 (-0.09%): Material difficulties incorrespondenceand a small rebound in the dollar.
- usd/cny 7.1060 (-0.03%): under the mid-value operationMaintain low volatilityThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $62.10/bbl | -0.56% | Demand uncertainty and inventory speculationupward price control |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.85/bbl | -0.22% | Macro Uncertainty and Dollar Trendsplus and minus equal zero |
| natural gas | $3.10/MMBtu | -0.32% | of supply and demand in recent monthslull |
| Gold (physical) | $3,730.00/oz | -0.49% | Real interest rate unchangedstruggle to the high (stock market, etc.) |
| silver | $44.10/oz | -1.63% | gold-linkedbeta adjustment |
| copper | $4.69800/lb | -0.15% | Waiting for China Headlinesrange |
crypto
- Bitcoin $114,510.00 (+2.00%): After the eventShort-covering and recovery of risk appetiteThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- Ethereum $4,209.70 (+1.92%): Waiting for large materialupper-range testThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- Tuesday, 2025/09/30 Preliminary Eurozone HICP (September)Core: Degree of deceleration and implications for interest rate outlook
- 2025/09/30 (Tue) U.S. Consumer Confidence (Sep): Employment Indicators and Income Expectations Confirming the Tone of the
- 2025/10/01 (Wed) U.S. ISM Manufacturing/China PMI (Sep)Tipping Point Verification of the Manufacturing Cycle
- 2025/10/02 (Thu) U.S. - New applications for unemployment insurance: Confirmation of employment slowdown tempo
Insight Summary
- U.S. Large Growth DominanceUnder ContinuationFutures hedging combinationModerate risk-on of
- Pushing rotation of Japanese stocksandHigher weight on foreign demand growthMobile allocation of
- Duration slightly longer(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionmeeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.andCurve flattening biasmaintenance
- Dollar Small Rebound RangeBelow.Buy EUR phase, USD/JPY reverseRange Tactics of
- Sell oil back and buy goldCross-asset diversification of
- Cryptolite Light(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionPost-event volatility reduction period response
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