This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 10/03/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLUG (Plug Power) | 3.81 | +34.63% | Hydrogen & Fuel Cells | HCW target $7 raised and short cover |
| LAC (Lithium Americas) | 9.04 | +31.78% | Lithium Development | DOE5% investment confirmed continued |
| QUBT (Quantum Computing) | 24.62 | +23.22% | quantum computation | Ascendiant target $40 raise/quantum price |
| AREC (American Resources) | 3.70 | +20.13% | Critical Mineral Recycling | Continued evaluation of off-take contracts for POSCO |
| BFLY (Butterfly Network) | 2.33 | +18.88% | Mobile Ultrasound and Medical AI | Nothing in particular. |
| USAR (US Air Rare Earths) | 25.96 | +14.31% | critical mineral | Press reports of close consultations with the administration |
| ACHR (Archer Aviation) | 11.57 | +13.65% | eVTOL / Flying Taxi | Aftermath of press coverage of demonstration and alliance progress |
| RGTI (Righetti Computing) | 40.06 | +13.16% | quantum computation | 2 Novera units, approx. $5.7M orders announced |
| IREN (Iris Energy) | 50.46 | +7.32% | Bitcoin Mining, AI/HPC | Highest price and target increase reported |
personal impression
The market isPolicy Theme × Quantum × HydrogenThe three pillars of the company's business are
LAC confirmed 5% stake in DOEThe lithium chain continues to be affected by theUSAR reports consultation with administrationInflows of funds due to the
In quantum related,RGTI actual orderstriggered buying in the sector as a whole,QUBT raises targetMomentum accelerates in response to the
The hydrogen sector is also becoming more active,PLUG Bullish Ratingtriggers short cover.
Further,AREC, a resource recycling companyandLong-term offtake agreement with POSCOThe revaluation process started with the
On the other hand,Palantir (PLTR)fell sharply in the wake of the news material.The content of the report was already factored in. Some view the content as after-the-fact information that has already been factored in,Short-term shorts set upThe movement gives a sense of
Personal PLTR'sMedium- to long-term bullish stanceremains the same.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/10/03
general mood
U.S. government agencies.Partial closure continuesSh,Whether or not to publish employment statisticsgo arounduncertaintyis on the rise.
Leading Signals for ISM Manufacturing IndexandCash flow at the end of the quarterThe market is intermingled with theevent guard regressionaspect.
Temporary budget negotiations stalledand ... andRisk of financial data blockingIncreased awareness of theDifficult to find clues in statements by key authoritiesdue toRising information premiumis followed by.
In Europe,HICP core slowdown lingeringWhile the remainingInterest Rate Decline Expectationspersists.cheap energydue toExpectations of real income supportis also a factor supporting the market.
The Japanese market islull in yen depreciationandReevaluating Foreign Demand Growth Stocksplayed a tug of war,Ex-dividends and rebalancing at the beginning of the periodor some suchtechnical factoris also the focus of the market.
In the commodity market,Crude Oil Demand Uncertainty ObservationandMaintain high gold pricesremained in equilibrium.
At the same time,Sensitivity to headlines surrounding geopolitical risksis further enhanced.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,400.12 | -119.60 (-0.26%) | Continued government shutdown and employment statistics uncertainty in hand |
| S&P 500 | 6,709.80 | -5.55 (-0.08%) | Underlying support for a slight decline in interest rates and waiting for events. |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,870.50 | +26.45 (+0.12%) | Semiconductor and AI mainstay push |
| Nikkei 225 | 44,620.50 | -316.23 (-0.70%) | Lull in yen depreciation and profit taking on external uncertainties |
| STOXX600 | 568.10 | +0.50 (+0.09%) | HICP lingering expectations of lower interest rates and tech speculation |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.08 % | -1 | Duration regression of statistical lag risk and safe asset demand |
| Germany | 2.72 % | -1 | Persistent slowdown in inflation |
| Japan | 1.64 % | 0 | Supply-demand equilibrium and wait-and-see after passing the meeting |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.10 (-0.14%): Slight decline in U.S. long-term interest rates and the dollar weakened against the yen in early month flow.
- EUR/USD 1.1810 (+0.04%): Expectations of lower European interest rates and a weaker dollar bias are competing with each other.
- usd/cny 7.1030 (-0.01%): low volatility range under mid-price operation.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $61.90/bbl | +0.32% | Balance between inventory speculation and demand uncertainty |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.70/bbl | +0.15% | Offsetting Dollar Trends and OPEC+ Expectations |
| natural gas | $3.10/MMBtu | +0.65% | Tightening supply-demand speculation in recent months |
| Gold (physical) | $3,760.00/oz | +0.16% | Statistical delay risk and policy uncertainty hedging demand |
| silver | $44.30/oz | +0.29% | High gold price linkage and industrial demand expectations |
| copper | $4.70400/lb | +0.04% | Small autonomous rebound awaiting headlines during China holiday period |
crypto
- Bitcoin $115,800.00 (+0.43%): Diversified Demand under Government Shutdown Uncertainty.
- Ethereum $4,270.00 (+0.47%): Testing the upper end of the range waiting for the event.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/10/04 (Sat) China, Zaixin PMI (Sep)Service-driven extensibility and stickiness of price indexes
- 2025/10/07 (Tue) U.S. FOMC Minutes (September): Discussion nuances after the first rate cut and suggestions for the next one
- 2025/10/08 (Wed) Japan, Business Watchers' Survey (Sep.)Direction of Household and Business Sentiment
- 2025/10/10 (Fri) Preliminary Consumer Confidence, University of Michigan, U.S. (Oct)Change in Expected Inflation Indicators
Insight Summary
- Cryptolite Light(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionHeadline response and pre-event risk management
- Government shutdown risk continuesBelow.Return to quality and combined futures hedgingMaintenance of
- U.S. Large Growth and Healthcare(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionbipolar allocationandgradual profit-takingCombination of
- Duration slightly longer(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionmeeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.andCurve flattening orientation centered on 5-10 years
- Dollar Soft RangeIn.Buy EUR phase and sell USD/JPY returnReverse rotation of
- Crude oil is back in the market and gold is on the way outCross-asset diversification of
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