This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 09/16/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLUX (Flux Power) | 3.15 | +52.17% | Industrial Lithium Battery | FY25 financial results released and $5 million prefunded warrants raised |
| JMIA (Jumia Technologies) | 11.91 | +21.65% | African EC | RBC upgraded and target raised significantly |
| BBAI (Big Bear AI) | 5.94 | +16.70% | AI Analytics & Government Solutions | Nashville biometric introduction coverage |
| BITF (Bitfarms) | 2.89 | +16.53% | Bitcoin Mining | BTC near $115,000.00 Linked high |
| CRNC (Serenity) | 11.36 | +10.72% | Voice Recognition and In-vehicle AI | None in particular, appears to be rising momentum from the downside |
| AREC (American Resources) | 2.71 | +10.61% | Critical Mineral Recycling | Buy recommendation reported and target $6 presented |
| BE (Bloom Energy) | 73.29 | +9.36% | Fuel Cell and Data Center Power Supply | Morgan S target raised, OCI power supply associations |
| KTOS (Kratos Defense) | 76.35 | +7.93% | Defense/Unmanned Aerial Vehicles | U.S. drone export deregulation reported |
| CLSK (Clean Spark) | 11.20 | +8.84% | Bitcoin Mining | BTC High-linked |
| IONQ) | 62.26 | +5.33% | quantum computing | Needham target $80 raised and continue to buy |
personal impression
AI Infrastructure x Power & EquipmentThe re-acceleration of the market for Continued rise in oracle-associated fuel cells (BE), and the target hike in Quantum (IONQ) spread high-tech speculation.
JMIA was quickly moved to around $12.00 due to reports of a rating upgrade. Institutional buying is solid.
Policy Driven Defensealso running parallel. The U.S. government's easing of restrictions on drone exports has led to an inflow of funds into KTOS, and speculation is spreading to drone-related companies.
Benefit from high crypto assetsBITF continues to rise tremendously, including the theme that BITF is HPC related.
On the other hand,Tonal high in material uncertain stocksCRNC lacks clear materials and is in a short-term momentum phase awaiting events. The possibility of the FOMC meeting exhausting material is also in view.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/09/16
general mood
U.S. stocks arePre-FOMC handouts prevailThe three major indices all fell slightly from their previous highs atvaluation adjustmentEurope Europe.STOXX600 fell over 11 TP3TJapan is in a financial-driven soft market in theNikkei 225 approaching 45,000The recipient of global diversification by maintaining a high level of
U.S. and German long-term interest rates areslight declineJGBs areslight riseBalls are organized before the event in the following manner. Commodities areCrude oil mixed, gold holding at high levelsThe exchange rate isU.S. dollar moves slightly, euro firmThe crypto assets aresteadiness (of market price)The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
equity
| index index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | Compared to the previous day Compared to the previous day | Background Background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,757.90 | -125.55 (-0.27%) | Pre-FOMC handwringing and economic sensitivities on the upside |
| S&P 500 | 6,606.76 | -8.52 (-0.13%) | Megatech highs and lows mixed, indexes down slightly |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,333.96 | -14.79 (-0.07%) | AI-related businesses remain resilient despite strong gains in semiconductors |
| Nikkei 225 | 44,902.27 | +134.15 (+0.30%) | 45,000 for the big test.Arbitrage buying by foreign companiesinflux |
| STOXX600 | 550.79 | -6.37 (-1.14%) | Declines in finance and insurance pushed down the index. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Compared to previous day (bp) Compared to previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America USA | 4.04 % | -1 | Before the FOMCduration regressionSlight decline in |
| Germany | 2.69 % | 0 | Neutral zone maintained pending policy |
| Japan | 1.60 % | +1 | Factoring in interest rate observations prior to BOJ meeting |
exchange rate
- usd/jpy 147.40 (-0.10%)The market is range-bound with little sense of direction before the event.
- EUR/USD 1.1760 (+0.10%): Euro resilient amid flat European interest rates.
- usd/cny 7.1200 (-0.05%)Volatility is suppressed by the authorities' mid-price operations.
commodity
| Item Item | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | Compared to the previous day Compared to the previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $64.10/bbl$64.10/barrel | +1.26% | Inventory speculation and geopolitical factors pushing up |
| Brent Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil | $67.88/bbl $67.88/barrel | +0.65% | Tight supply-demand balance and small dollar movement |
| natural gas | $3.08/MMBtu | +1.32% | Tight Supply/Demand Observation and Temperature Outlook |
| Gold (physical) Gold (physical) | $3,680.00/oz$3,680.00/oz | +0.02% | Nominal and real interest rates remain flat and high |
| silver | $42.55/oz$42.55/oz | -0.28% | Small drop in gold-linked |
| copper | $4.70500/lb$4.70500/lb | -0.27% | Traffic waiting for China-related headlines |
crypto
- Bitcoin $115,000 (-0.31%): Direction limited pending the passage of events.
- Ethereum $4,520 (-0.08%): Range continues as we wait for large materials.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- Thursday, 2025/09/18 FOMC (policy rate, SEP, and Chairman's press conference): Focus on dots and guidance for the first rate cut.
- Thursday, 2025/09/18 UK MPC (Policy Rate)Under deferment: under defermentQT PolicyNote the suggestion that the
- 2025/09/18-19 (Thu-Fri) Bank of Japan, Monetary Policy Meeting:Interest Rate Guidance and Purchase ManagementAdjustment or not of.2025/09/18-19 (Thu-Fri) BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting:Adjusting Interest Rate Guidance and Purchasing ManagementAbout
- 2025/09/19 (Fri) Japan, National CPI (August):Energy contribution and degree of core tone slowdownInspection of.
Insight Summary
- Relative Advantage of Large U.S. Growthis maintained, and the event crossing isIndex Hedge Thicknessis safe.
- Japanese stocks are waiting for a pushRefrain from following new highs.spot turnoverlooks good.
- Duration is neutral to slightly longand in the vicinity of 4% in the U.S. 10 years.meeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.is appropriate.
- Assuming a strong dollar and low volatility in the exchange rateThe USD/JPY is safe to reverse the 147-148 range.
- Crude oil is back in the market and gold is on the verge of a pushGas is good to wait and see until inventory is confirmed.
- Crypto maintains a light stanceAiming for a push after the event bora passes is safe.
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