This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 10/07/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMQ (Trilogy Metals) | 6.50 | +211.00% | critical mineral | The U.S. Government.10% investmentAmbler Road Approval |
| POET (Poet Technologies) | 7.88 | +23.51% | Optical communication and AI connection | $75M procurement to strengthen AI connectivity |
| TMC (TMC the Metals) | 9.28 | +20.21% | Undersea Mining and Nickel | Observation of U.S. support and higher prices |
| SES (SES AI) | 2.71 | +11.52% | Next Generation EV Batteries | New Product Announcementsearching high and low |
| HIVE (HIVE Digital) | 6.20 | +11.31% | Bitcoin Mining | September production 267 BTCofficial announcement |
| MGX (metagenomics) | 2.95 | +9.67% | Gene Editing/Biotechnology | None in particular, momentum continues |
| CTEV (Claritev) | 55.63 | +9.08% | Digital Health & Medical AI | Nothing in particular, seeking from a lull in adjustment |
| APP (Applavin) | 631.85 | +7.64% | AdTech & AI Advertising | Citi Buy RecommendationWedbush target raised |
| FIG. | 60.84 | +6.81% | Design SaaS | Nothing in particular, seeking from a lull in adjustment |
| SOFI | 28.14 | +6.75% | FinTech | Nothing in particular, seeking from a lull in adjustment |
| RGTI (Righetti Computing) | 43.91 | +5.27% | quantum computing | Benchmark is target $50increase in value |
| RKLB (Rocket Lab) | 61.51 | +5.15% | Space Transportation and Small Rocket | 3 machines for iQPSElectron contracting of |
personal impression
Policy Themes x Direct hit on resources (TMQ) as a starting point,Cascading to Quantum (RGTI), Space (RKLB) and AdTech (APP).
Background of the rise is all real demand, capital policy, and rating upgradestied to one of the following,The fresher the news, the lighter the upsideDevelopment.
On the other hand,MGX, CTEV, SOFIet ceteraLack of material clarityand from a temporary adjustment phase.Momentum-driven shadesis dense.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/10/07
general mood
U.S. government agencies.Partial closure continuesAnd,Just before the release of the FOMC meeting minutesinThe Rise of Policy UncertaintyThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Risk of delay in publication of statisticsandRebalancing supply and demand at the end of the quarterThe market is in a cautious mood.
On the corporate side,Alliance headlines starting with AI semiconductors and data centersto the clue,Generative AI Related Re-stockingprogresses.
Europe,Lingering effects of HICP core slowdownandExpectation of lower government bond yieldsWhile support is provided by the continuation of theFiscal & Political HeadlinesLocal risk remains in the
The Japanese market islull in yen depreciationin the background,Reevaluating Foreign Demand Growth Stocksthrougharbitrage positionwill proceed.
In the commodity market,Crude Oil Demand Uncertainty ObservationandMaintain high gold pricesare close to each other.
General,Fiscal Negotiations, FOMC Minutes, Earnings GuidanceThe phase in which the
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,755.80 | +60.83 (+0.13%) | Under policy uncertaintyreturn to the defensiveand demand for large-cap stocks |
| S&P 500 | 6,752.40 | +12.12 (+0.18%) | light easing of interest ratesandMegatech ResilienceValue Allowance of |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,930.55 | -11.12 (-0.05%) | Semiconductor gains and AI mainstay holdings |
| Nikkei 225 | 45,480.20 | +190.20 (+0.42%) | lull in yen depreciationandReturn of foreign arbitrage buying |
| STOXX600 | 571.10 | +0.86 (+0.15%) | Interest Rate Decline ExpectationsandUnderpinning Tech & Resources |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.09 % | -1 | Pre-Meeting Duration Regression |
| Germany | 2.72 % | -1 | lingering effects of slowing inflationDecline in yields of |
| Japan | 1.63 % | 0 | supply-demand balanceand waiting for external events |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.25 (-0.07%):U.S. long-term interest rates declined slightlyand before the event.dollar backlashThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- EUR/USD 1.1795 (+0.03%):Expectations of lower interest rates in EuropeandDollar softening slightlyThe antagonism of the
- usd/cny 7.1090 (+0.03%):Intermediate value operationNarrow range transition below.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $61.60/bbl | -0.24% | Observation of uncertain demandand restraining the upward movement of the inventory outlook |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.45/bbl | -0.08% | dollar movementand offsetting OPEC+ observations |
| natural gas | $3.12/MMBtu | +0.32% | Shoulder Month Supply-Demand Tighteningspeculation |
| Gold (physical) | $3,758.00/oz | +0.16% | Statistical Delay RiskandReal interest rate unchangedHedging demand for |
| silver | $44.25/oz | +0.45% | gold bullion quotientand industrial demand expectations |
| copper | $4.70800/lb | +0.04% | Waiting for China Headlinessmall autonomous rebound of |
crypto
- Bitcoin $116,900.00 (+0.41%):Government shutdown uncertaintyBelow.Distributed DemandThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- Ethereum $4,295.00 (+0.23%):waiting for an event(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionupper-range testThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/10/08 (Wed) FOMC Minutes (Sept):Discussion tone after initial rate cutandnext installment (TV shows, podcasts, etc.)
- 2025/10/09 (Thu) U.S. - New Unemployment Insurance Applications:Employment slowdown tempoandAvailability of statistical publication
- 2025/10/10 (Fri) Preliminary Consumer Confidence, University of Michigan, U.S. (Oct):expected inflationandhousehold sentiment
- 2025/10/10 (Fri) U.K. Monthly GDP (August):Degree of growth decelerationandService Contribution
Insight Summary
- Cryptolite Light(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionHeadline supportandPre-event risk managementis reasonable
- Policy Uncertainty and Pre-Meeting Agenda(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionReturn to QualityandIndex hedging combinationis safe
- AI-related/Healthcare(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionbipolar allocationandgradual profit-takingseems to be a good combination of
- Duration slightly longer(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionmeeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.and5-10 years central flatteningis reasonable
- U.S. dollar small movement rangeBelow.Buy EUR phase and sell USD/JPY returnShort-term rotation of the
- Sell oil back and buy gold, ,Copper thinned exposureslooks good
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