This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 09/26/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPTA (Perpetua Resources) | 21.16 | +11.37% | Gold and Antimony Resources | Antimony Downstream Treatment Plan Released |
| LTBR (Light Bridge) | 21.44 | +10.29% | Next Generation Nuclear Fuel | Expectations for development promotion through disclosure of financing plan |
| PLG (Platinum Group Metals) | 2.55 | +9.44% | PGM/Resources | Platinum market high and trend following |
| CLPT (Clearpoint Neuro) | 21.55 | +9.17% | Neurosurgery Navigation | Target raised and higher price observed |
| MOB (Mobilicom) | 10.20 | +6.47% | Drone Communications and National Defense | Aftermath of announcement of increased orders and exhibition participation |
| APP (Applavin) | 669.86 | +4.68% | AdTech & AI Distribution | UBS/Piper Raises Target and Remains Bullish |
personal impression
The strength of the resources and energy sector continues.
The PPTA isdownstream project of antimonyPGM's PLG also led the resources sector withprice-earnings ratioContinued to grow at LTBR, the nuclear fuelFunding ExplicitFactoring in the expectation of continued development in the
On the other hand, the APPAI Advertising Products x Bullish RatingsMaintained a high price range at
CLPT for medical devices israising the targetThe trend continues with the defense drone MOBs inAftermath of Orders and ExhibitionsThe firmness of the bottom line was confirmed in
Popular issues may be taking a breather, but I also feel that shorts are active, and I personally would like to wait and see.
Is it a market price to take a break?
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/09/26
general mood
U.S. stocks are3 major indices reboundindicates certainty, emphasis, etc.PCE Roughly Assumed LineWith the peace of mind ofmegatech repurchaseContinued risk appetite in Europe isSTOXX600 slightly higherThe return of capital goods and tech and the weight of finance in theforward puller (of a rickshaw)Japan Japan.Nikkei recessionat the high end of the range.superheat arrangementThe Interest rates areU.S. and Germany down, JGB down slightly(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionduration regressionThe exchange rate The exchange rate isWeak dollar, strong yen, strong euro(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionRisk reversal improvementCommodities are the most important part of the Commodities are.WTI slightly rebounded, gold continued to rise(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionMacro and supply-demand equilibriumThe crypto asset is a Crypto assets area little higher(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionevent bora pareThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,247.29 | +321.48 (+0.70%) | Buying back in anticipation of continued interest rate cuts and economic soft landing |
| S&P 500 | 6,643.70 | +38.98 (+0.59%) | megatech preferenceand lower interest rates valuations allowed |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,484.07 | +89.58 (+0.40%) | Semiconductor and AI-relatedCenter Push Buying |
| Nikkei 225 | 45,354.99 | -399.94 (-0.87%) | Profit-taking at higher prices and externally-driven handshaking |
| STOXX600 | 552.30 | +2.08 (+0.38%) | Offsetting the return of tech and capital goods and the heaviness of financials |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.13 % | -3 | Term premia contraction observed at assumed line of inflation indicators |
| Germany | 2.76 % | -2 | Spillover of European economic slowdown and lower U.S. interest rates |
| Japan | 1.64 % | -1 | Balance of supply and demand after passing the meeting and the backdrop of high risk assets |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.30 (-0.44%): Lower U.S. interest rates and risk appetite buying back the yen.
- EUR/USD 1.1790 (+0.26%): Euro firmness on weak dollar ground and stable European interest rates.
- usd/cny 7.1080 (-0.03%): Maintain the range under mid-price operation.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $62.45/bbl | +0.48% | Inventory Observations and Underpinning Dollar Weakness |
| Brent Crude Oil | $67.00/bbl | +0.30% | Equilibrium between macro relief and supply-side neutrality |
| natural gas | $3.11/MMBtu | -0.32% | Near Month Supply/Demand Lull and Temperature Outlook |
| Gold (physical) | $3,748.41/oz | +1.64% | Demand for hedging against the prospect of lower real interest rates and policy uncertainty |
| silver | $44.83/oz | -0.97% | Profit taking and beta adjustment at higher prices |
| copper | $4.70500/lb | -0.11% | Traffic waiting for China-related headlines |
crypto
- Bitcoin $112,300.00 (+1.39%): Short-covering after the event and linked to higher stock prices.
- Ethereum $4,520.00 (+0.89%): Testing the upper end of the range awaiting large materials.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/09/29 (Mon) Japan - Flash Report, Industrial Production (Aug)Inventory Circulation and Automotive Contribution Inspection.
- Tuesday, 2025/09/30 Preliminary Eurozone HICP (September): implications for the degree of core deceleration and the interest rate outlook.
- 2025/09/30 (Tue) U.S. Consumer Confidence (Sep): confirming the underlying tone of employment indicators and income expectations.
- 2025/10/01 (Wed) U.S. ISM Manufacturing/China PMI (Sep): Turning Point Verification of the Manufacturing Cycle.
Insight Summary
- U.S. Large Growth DominanceUnder ContinuationFutures hedging combinationModerate risk-on of
- Japanese stocks turn to pushandHigher weight on foreign demand growthMobile allocation of
- Duration slightly longer(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionmeeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.andCurve flattening biasmaintenance
- cheap dollar biasBelow.Buy EUR phase, USD/JPY reverseRange Tactics of
- Crude oil is back in the market and gold is on the way outCross-asset diversification of
- Cryptolite Light(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionPost-event volatility reduction period response
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