This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (2025/07/17 closing price basis)
| description | theme | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| PDYN | robotics | +31.40 % | Soaring but no material, some kind of speculative buying? |
| QS | lithium battery | +19.82 % | Solid-state battery "Cobra Separator" rapidly increases due to reports of its entry into mass production process |
| ASPI | isotope | +18.12 % | Announced progress of commercial production at three facilities in South Africa, expecting demand for medical isotopes |
| BBAI | AI-related | +15.45 % | Hot stocks entered the market with a sharp increase in trading volume, and volume increased 79% for the fourth day in a row. |
| QBTS | quantum related | +15.45 % | Speculative buying of quantum computation stocks spills over, soaring with volume. |
| MOB | drone | +12.46 % | Expectation of return high from adjustment |
| LUNR | Space related | +9.18 % | Signal of movement, volume increase |
| POWL | Power Infrastructure | +8.69 % | Return highs at once, volume soaring on increased volume. |
| joby | eVTOL | +8.51 % | Reports of completion of manned demonstration flight accelerated buying |
| APLD | data center | +8.45 % | Sales up 22% and HPC hosting for AI strengthened. |
| KTOS | Defense Tech. | +8.53 % | 100 M$ drone contract for U.S. Air Force soars on reports |
market insight
general mood
U.S. stocks areUpswing in retail sales and unemployment insurance claimsThe S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit new highs again on a closing basis, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose slightly to 4.50%, but this did not impede risk tolerance in equities and the U.S. dollar paused. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose slightly to 4.50%, but this did not hamper equities' risk tolerance and the dollar's strength paused; WTI rose 1.8% on the back of the situation in the Middle East and Iraq, while gold fell on dollar strength. Sentiment was "High tech + energy high selective risk-on driven by strong U.S. consumption".
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 44,484.49 | +229.71 pt (+0.52 %) | Retail and capital goods lead the way to higher prices |
| S&P 500 | 6,297.36 | +33.60 pt (+0.54 %) | Energy and semiconductors contributed |
| Nasdaq Composite | 20,884.27 | +153.78 pt (+0.74 %) | Continued growth centered on NVIDIA and other AI-related companies |
| Nikkei 225 | 39,901.19 | +237.79 pt (+0.60 %) | Strong semiconductor buying despite lull in yen depreciation |
| Stoxx Europe 600 | 547.03 | +0.96 % | Supported by good earnings and tech stock rebound |
bond
- U.S. 10-year bond4.50 % (+4 bp) - Yields rise on strong US indices
- German 10-year bond2.68 % (-1 bp) - Buying back on economic concerns
- Japan 10-year bond: 1.56 % (-2 bp) - safety buy due to election uncertainty
exchange (e.g. foreign)
| Currency Pairs | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 148.53 | -0.34 % | Selling dollars to lock in profits despite high U.S. interest rates |
| EUR/USD | 1.1579 | -0.16 % | Continued Dollar Strength and Euro Softness |
| USD/CNY | 7.1795 | +0.09 % | Narrow range with the People's Bank of China's mid-term price unchanged. |
Commodities (closing price/day before)
| goods | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $67.54/bbl | +1.16 (+1.75 %) | Drone Strikes on Iraqi Oil Fields Raise Supply Concerns |
| Brent Crude Oil | $69.52/bbl | +1.00 (+1.46 %) | same as above |
| Natural gas (HH) | $3.54/MMBtu | -0.01 (-0.28 %) | Adjustment pending weekend inventory statistics |
| money (written before an amount) | $3,345.3/oz | -0.42 % | Dollar slightly higher under pressure |
| silver | $38.12/oz | -0.26 % | Precious metals remain high despite falling with the rest of the market |
| copper | $5.47/lb | -0.35 % | Selling for profit at high prices |
crypto
- bitcoin$118,362 (+1.5 %) - ETF inflows continue, on track to recover to $120,000
- ethereum: $3,560 (+3.2 %) - Largest ETF inflows in history
Macro Event Focus
- 7/19 (Sat.) China Apr-Jun GDP, U.S. June existing home sales
- 7/19 (Sat.) G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting (Rio)
- July 22 (Tuesday) Preliminary July PMI for the U.S. and Eurozone
- 7/23 (Wed.) U.S. new home sales in June, Canadian CPI
- 7/24 (Thu.) ECB Executive Board meeting, U.S. durable goods orders
Insight Summary
- U.S. consumption-driven stock market reaffirmation: Strong retail sales and declining unemployment insurance support the resilience of the economy. Continued push-buying.
- Rising interest rates and dollar lull coexist: Sense of peak dollar strength even if the 10-year U.S. Treasury note reaches 4.5%. Good opportunity to review currency hedge ratio.
- Rebound in energy pricesWTI: The $67 WTI level reflects supply risk. Energy stocks and ETFs are gradually being added to the portfolio.
- Strangeness of Commodity Diversification: Copper adjusted but structural tightness, gold maintained above $3,000 as a hedging asset.
- Crypto is strong: In preparation for the $120,000 BTC breakthrough, the risk is managed thoroughly with a trailing stop.
Market Insights Infographic
Analysis Date: 2025/07/17
Today's Market Trends
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs again on a closing basis. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose slightly to 4.50%, but this did not hamper the stock market's risk tolerance, and the dollar's strength paused. Sentiment is increasingly in a "**Selective risk-on** with high tech + energy driven by strong US consumption" mood.
S&P 500
6,297.36
+0.54%
NASDAQ
20,884.27
+0.74%
U.S. 10-year bond yield
4.50%
+4 bp
WTI crude oil
$67.54
+1.75%
Asset Class Performance
stock (company)
Against the backdrop of strong U.S. economic indicators, major stock markets, including those in Europe, were higher across the board.
bond
| assets | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. 10-year bond | 4.50% | +4 bp |
| German 10-year bond | 2.68% | -1 bp |
| Japan 10-year bond | 1.56% | -2 bp |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
| assets | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 148.53 | -0.34% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1579 | -0.16% |
| USD/CNY | 7.1795 | +0.09% |
Commodities & Crypto
| assets | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $67.54/bbl | +1.75% |
| money (written before an amount) | $3,345.3/oz | -0.42% |
| bitcoin | $118,362 | +1.5% |
| ethereum | $3,560 | +3.2% |
Insights and Future Prospects
key insight
- U.S. consumption-driven stock market reaffirmation:. Strong retail sales and declining unemployment insurance support the resilience of the economy. A push-buy strategy is effective.
- Rising interest rates and dollar lull coexist:. Dollar strength is still peaky even though the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has reached 4.5%. Good opportunity to review currency hedge ratios.
- Energy prices rebound:. WTI hits the $67 level, reflecting geopolitical risks. Considering gradual buildup of energy stocks and ETFs.
Major Macro Events
7/19 (Sat): China Apr-Jun GDP, U.S. June existing home sales
7/22 (Tue): Preliminary July PMI for the U.S. and Eurozone
7/24 (Thu): ECB Governing Council meeting, U.S. durable goods orders
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