This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 09/11/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RENT (Rent the Runway) | 7.89 | +29.56% | Fashion EC & Rental | Q2 financial results and recapitalization plan announced |
| RCAT (Red Cat Holdings) | 11.00 | +29.11% | Drone & Defense | Publication of NATO Procurement Catalogue Certification |
| BITF (Bitfarms) | 2.04 | +16.57% | Bitcoin Mining | BTC rise linkage and HPC diversion expectations |
| ONDS (Ondus Holdings, Inc.) | 6.42 | +15.47% | drawn robotics | Public Offering Close Report |
| TEM (Tempus AI) | 88.78 | +13.59% | Medical AI and Diagnostics | Cardiac Imaging Analysis Software FDA Approved |
| SMTK (Smart Chem) | 1.73 | +13.07% | Micro LED, Organic TFT | (None) |
| ZETA (Zeta Global) | 20.76 | +10.09% | Marketing AI/CDP | Zeta Live 2025 lineup announced |
| JMIA (Jumia Technologies) | 9.73 | +8.84% | African EC | Continued rise after Q2 results |
| ARQQ (Arquit Quantum) | 30.26 | +8.83% | Quantum Cryptography/Security | Annual General Meeting Resolution and Election of Directors |
| OUST (AUST) | 30.73 | +8.62% | LiDAR and industrial automation | Q2 results continue to be evaluated favorably |
| TMDX (Transmedics Group) | 116.99 | +8.54% | Transplant Medicine and Organ Preservation and Transportation | Scheduled to attend MS meeting, good financial results lingering |
| OKLO) | 79.97 | +8.43% | Small Reactor & Fuel Recycling | Fuel Reprocessing Facility Plan Report |
| IONQ | 47.05 | +7.27% | quantum computing | Establishment of a new division for the government |
personal impression
The flow of funds back to small- and mid-cap growth.
The upward trend in the U.S. shareholder index and the tailwind from the prospect of interest rate cuts confirmed the proliferation of thematic speculation (S&P 500 continued to grow).
Individually,FDA Approval for Medical AI (TEM), ,Institutional aspects of drones and procurement progress (RCAT and ONDS), ,Quantum-related policy and corporate announcements (IONQ and ARQQ), ,Nuclear Energy Circulating Fuel Shift (OKLO)is strong with clear material.
BITF is strong on multiple fronts due to HPC speculation from the NBIS and Microsoft contracts and high crypto assets.
On the other hand,Earnings and Conference AftermathThe rise in the "market" is also noticeable (OUST, TMDX, ZETA). The strong rise in the same stocks with few materials (SMTK, JMIA) has the aspect of a thematic market, and while we need to be careful of short-term overheating, we also need to be aware of the long-term trend.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/09/11
general mood
U.S. stocks areAll three major indices reached new highsrisk appetite recovery market. Background.Weak inflation indicators and unemployment insurance increasedue toReinforcement of interest rate cutsand better megatech supply and demand. Europe isECB unchangedJapan rallied, driven by theNikkei's daily highsWatch for continued strength in expectations until the presidential election on Oct. 4.
Bonds are down in the U.S., flat in Germany, and in the JGB range.yield convergenceThe exchange rate isa lull in the dollar's depreciationrange. Commodities areCrude oil slightly down x Gold staying at high levelsContrast between the two. The short-term stance isQuality Thickness, Beta SuppressionThe flow of the
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,108.00 | +617.08 (+1.36%) | Reinforced interest rate cut speculation and higher financial and tech prices put the market above 46,000 for the first time ever. |
| S&P 500 | 6,587.47 | +55.43 (+0.85%) | Continued quality buying in favor of price and employment weakness. |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,043.07 | +157.01 (+0.72%) | Megatech led the way to a new high. |
| Nikkei 225 | 44,188.37 | +350.70 (+0.80%) | Tech-led and US interest rate cut speculation spills over to daily highs. |
| STOXX600 | 555.13 | +2.84 (+0.51%) | Improved sentiment after ECB unchanged. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.00 % | -2 | Weakness in prices and employment lowered interest rates. |
| Germany | 2.65 % | -1 | Slightly lower with the spillover of lower US interest rates. |
| Japan | 1.60 % | 0 | Range under the policy unchanged observation. |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 147.44 (-0.01%): Small movement due to a lull in dollar weakness after the indexes.
- EUR/USD 1.1712 (+0.06%): The euro remained in a slight range.
- usd/cny 7.1210 (+0.00%): Narrow range under the authorities' guidance.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $63.53/bbl | -0.24% | Slightly lower due to the prospect of softer U.S. supply/demand and OPEC+ production increase. |
| Brent Crude Oil | $67.35/bbl | -0.21% | Slightly lower due to similar supply and demand factors. |
| natural gas | $3.11/MMBtu | -0.13% | Flat supply and demand and position liquidation traffic. |
| Gold (physical) | $3,638.70/oz | +0.32% | The market remains high due to the prospect of interest rate cuts and demand for safe assets. |
| silver | $41.10/oz | +0.54% | Linked to high gold prices and underpinning investment demand. |
| copper | $4.54/lb | +0.89% | A rebound in economic expectations and a self-sustaining rebound in inventory expectations. |
crypto
- Bitcoin $112,250.00 (+0.68%): Recovery of risk tolerance under the rising stock market and declining interest rate environment.
- Ethereum $4,440.37 (+1.35%)L2: Continued L2 flow and relative strength of supply-demand tightening observation.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/09/12 (Fri) Preliminary U.S. Michigan Consumer Confidence (September) - Direction of Inflation Expectations
- 2025/09/12 (Fri) UK - Monthly GDP (July) - Sustainability check of services traction
- 2025/09/16 (Tue) U.S. Retail Sales (August) - Confirmation of real consumption stickiness
- Wednesday, 2025/09/17 FOMC Policy Rate-.Initial Interest Rate Reduction Rangeand dot outlook focus
Insight Summary
- Interest rate cut forecast x Highest priceQuality bias dominance due to the continuation of a concurrent market for
- The bonds areMedium-term duration axisStep increase in
- The exchange rate isDollar Range RegressionShort-term rotation of assumptions, dollar/yen attack around the 147 level.
- Commodities areReturn of crude oil x gold maintaining pushbackPair operation of
- cryptoBTC axis, ETH relative strengthSize suppression rotation operation of
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