This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 10/02/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONDS (Ondus Holdings, Inc.) | 9.21 | +25.99% | Communication for drones and robots | Announced first orders for low-cost expendable drone "Wåsp" for the U.S. |
| USAR (US Air Rare Earths) | 22.71 | +23.36% | critical mineral | Canaccord raised to target $22 |
| CLPT (Clearpoint Neuro) | 25.05 | +19.80% | Neurosurgery Navigation | Development and demonstration of in-house robotic navigation system |
| RGTI (Righetti Computing) | 35.40 | +18.59% | quantum computing | Novera Quantum Systems Total $5.7M Orders Announced |
| ARQQ (Arquit Quantum) | 48.59 | +17.94% | quantum cryptography | Spillover of quantum-related rise and options activity |
| ASTS (AST Space Mobile) | 66.16 | +16.19% | Satellite Communications and Satellite Cellular | AT&T, Verizon and D2C launch plan reported |
| QBTS (D-Wave Quantum) | 29.21 | +13.97% | quantum annealing | Sector associative high for Ligeti orders |
| CRSP (Crisper Therapeutics) | 72.82 | +10.07% | gene editing | (None) |
| JOBY (Joby Aviation) | 17.80 | +9.74% | eVTOL / Flying Taxi | Aftermath of FAA Progress and Alliance Reporting |
| PL (Planet Labs) | 14.85 | +7.84% | Satellite Data & Earth Observation | Announced delivery of 36 Pelican-5/6 and SuperDoves |
| INOD (INODATA) | 87.41 | +6.13% | AI Data Maintenance | Announcement of GenAI Summit to be held on 10/9 |
personal impression
Quantum related is,Received order for 2 units of Ligety equipmentThis development was triggered by the simultaneous progression of actual demand and sector associations. From thereSpillover to QBTS and ARQQand expectations for the theme as a whole are growing.
ASTS Major Carrier Collaboration Plans in Space Communicationsattracted renewed attention,Earth observation brings in PL's satellitesSpeculation of accelerated implementation strengthened against the backdrop of
The defense sector also appears to be moving,ONDS Consumable Drone OrdersThe trend of demand manifestation is being recognized by the Furthermore,In resources, USAR target raised.supports the continuation of the theme.
There is a strong impression of color in quantum and space-related sectors. Individual stocks remain strong despite the ongoing turmoil of the government shutdown.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/10/02
general mood
U.S. government agencies.Partial closure for the second day.Into theRisk of delay in publication of statisticsis becoming a reality,Ruling and Opposition Parties Attack and Defend Over Budget Billcontinued to be in the market.The Rise of Policy Uncertaintyare aware of.
In U.S. macro,Softening of JOLTS and consumer confidenceWhile dragging theWhether the weekly index of new unemployment insurance will be releasedIt is difficult to gauge the sustainability of growth due to speculation over the
The financial environment is,Slight decline in long-term interest ratesandStable credit spreadsAgainst the backdrop of the stockvaluation allowanceThe composition of the spread of the
In Europe,HICP core slowdown confirmedhaving been madeInterest Rate Decline Expectationsemerged, and speculationTech and data infrastructure relatedShift to the
The Japanese market isLull in yen depreciationIn the wake of theReevaluating Foreign Demand Growth StocksThe trend toward arbitrage returns will be strengthened through
In commodities,Crude oil demand uncertaintyandMaintain high gold pricesis playing a tug-of-war.
In general, the market isFiscal issues, statistical blocking, and late-year financial resultssaidtriple uncertaintywith a glare,Return to QualityandRebuild Event GuardThe phase that proceeds to the
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,519.72 | +93.04 (+0.20%) | Under risk of closurereturn to the defensiveandmegacap supply and demand |
| S&P 500 | 6,715.35 | +6.72 (+0.10%) | light easing of interest ratesandHealthcare Tech Preference |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,844.05 | +91.38 (+0.40%) | Semiconductor and AI mainstaybuying when the market is at its lowest point |
| Nikkei 225 | 44,936.73 | +385.88 (+0.87%) | lull in yen depreciationandReturn of foreign arbitrage buying |
| STOXX600 | 567.60 | +2.98 (+0.53%) | Interest Rate Decline Expectationsandtech traction |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.09 % | -2 | Closure risk andduration regression |
| Germany | 2.73 % | -1 | Observation of slowing inflationContinuation of |
| Japan | 1.64 % | 0 | Equilibrium between supply and demand after passing the meeting |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.30 (-0.27%):Decline in U.S. long-term interest ratesandBeginning of month flowThe dollar weakened against the yen in
- EUR/USD 1.1805 (+0.21%):Expectations of lower interest rates in Europeanddollar softeningThe antagonism of the
- usd/cny 7.1040 (-0.03%):Intermediate value operationLower range transition.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $61.70/bbl | -0.45% | Observation of uncertain demandand inventory speculation |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.60/bbl | -0.30% | dollar movementand offsetting OPEC+ observations |
| natural gas | $3.08/MMBtu | -0.32% | a lull in supply and demand in recent monthsand temperature outlook |
| Gold (physical) | $3,754.00/oz | +0.70% | Statistical Delay Riskandpolicy uncertaintyHedging demand for |
| silver | $44.17/oz | +0.50% | gold bullion quotientand industrial demand expectations |
| copper | $4.70200/lb | +0.04% | China holiday periodWaiting for headlines of |
crypto
- Bitcoin $115,300.00 (+0.44%):closure riskLower dispersed demand.
- Ethereum $4,250.00 (+0.47%):pre-eventTrial of the upper range limit of the
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/10/03 (Fri) U.S. - Employment Statistics (Sep):Risk of delay in publication of statisticsandwage momentumUncertainty of
- 2025/10/03 (Fri) U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing (Sep):Price index stickinessand spread of demand
- 2025/10/04 (Sat) China, Zaixin PMI (Sep):Degree of service-driven expansionand cost indicators
- 2025/10/07 (Tue) U.S. FOMC Minutes (September):Discussion nuances after initial rate cutand the next suggestion
Insight Summary
- Cryptolite Light(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionHeadline supportandPre-event risk managementis reasonable
- Government shutdown risk manifestedBelow.Return to QualityandFutures hedging combinationis safe
- Bipolar distribution of U.S. large growth and healthcareandgradual profit-takingseems to be a good combination of
- Duration slightly longer(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionmeeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.andFlattening oriented with a 5-10 year focusis reasonable
- Dollar Soft RangeIn.Buy EUR phase and sell USD/JPY returnIt is safe to use the reverse tactic of
- Sell oil back and buy goldCross-asset diversification looks good for
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