This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 09/12/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AISP (Airship AI) | 5.44 | +19.04% | Surveillance AI and Homeland Security | Soaring, but no materials in sight. |
| IONQ | 55.61 | +18.19% | quantum computing | UK Authorities Approve Oxford Ionics Acquisition |
| LAES (Seal Sq.) | 3.37 | +17.42% | Security Semiconductors and Quantum Resistance | Aftermath of H1 financial results and presentation of full-year forecast |
| BMNR (Bit Mine Immersion) | 55.09 | +15.28% | Crypto Assets & Mining | BTC High and ETH Holding Strategy Associated |
| RGTI (Righetti Computing) | 19.09 | +14.38% | quantum computing | Associated high of IONQ acquisition approval report |
| QS (Quantum Scape) | 9.95 | +12.43% | all solid-state battery | Continue to buy demo actual equipment public evaluation |
| MOB (Mobilicom) | 7.39 | +12.14% | Drone Communications and National Defense | Announced an increase in orders from U.S. Tier 1 customers |
| ARQQ (Arquit Quantum) | 33.71 | +11.42% | quantum cryptography | Aftermath of passage of all AGM proposals |
| RKLB (Rocket Lab) | 53.34 | +10.14% | Space Transportation and Small Rocket | Electron's 70th aircraft reported success |
| BITF (Bitfarms) | 2.23 | +9.31% | Bitcoin Mining | BTC recovered to the $115,000 level and continued to rally on the HPC theme. |
| GRAB | 6.00 | +8.50% | Southeast Asia Super App | 52-week high and momentum buying |
| SES (SES AI) | 1.25 | +7.76% | Next Generation EV Batteries | No individual materials, but the trend of the theme may be affected. |
personal impression
Quantum-relatedevent-drivenSpillover to RGTI and ARQQ for quantum cryptography, starting with reports of IONQ's acquisition approval.thematic chainingNasdaq at new highs. Under the Nasdaq's highest price.high-beta regressionor.
In energy and batteries, the QSDemonstration evaluation of actual equipmentfollowed by the RKLB in space.Electron milestone launch successfulis the focus of attention.Simultaneous high of distributed themesFlow of.
Crypto assets are BTC.115,000 unitsBMNR has maintained its position in the BITF and BMNR, and inflows into the BITF and BMNR.Huge ETH holdingsContinuing Materials for.Continued risk-on under macro tailwindsThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Quantum-related companies have been on a plateau for some time, and we hope that this material will trigger a recovery in the trend!
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/09/12
general mood
U.S. stocks are mixed, with the Nasdaq continuing to rise to new highs, the S&P 500 falling slightly, and the Dow falling back. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 slightly lower over the weekend,Japan's Nikkei 225 hits a new closing high.single-handedly higher. Bonds returned to a small rebound in U.S. interest rates, with Germany and Japan also slightly higher withyield convergenceThe exchange rate The exchange rate isa lull in the dollar's depreciationrange regression, and commodities areCrude oil rebounds x Gold stays at high levelscontrast, the crypto isBitcoin HighsThe trend of risk tolerance recovery in the
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,834.22 | -273.78 (-0.59%) | Small rebound in interest rates and pressure to book profits |
| S&P 500 | 6,584.29 | -3.18 (-0.05%) | Valuation caution and pre-event watch |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,141.10 | +98.03 (+0.44%) | Megatech buyback and new highs |
| Nikkei 225 | 44,768.12 | +930.45 (+2.12%) | Inflow of funds following global interest rate cuts and high tech |
| STOXX600 | 554.82 | -0.31 (-0.06%) | Small drop due to weekend material assessment |
(Major U.S. indices: AP; Nikkei: Various market flash reports; Europe: DataTalk)
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.03 % | +3 | Pre-index holding adjustment and weekend supply and demand |
| Germany | 2.66 % | +1 | Linked to the return of U.S. interest rates |
| Japan | 1.61 % | +1 | Test the upper end of the range under the policy unchanged |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 147.18 (-0.18%): Limited return of U.S. interest rates and a pause in the dollar's appreciation.
- EUR/USD 1.1723 (+0.09%): Euro small return to range.
- usd/cny 7.1205 (-0.01%): Narrow range under authorities guidance.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $62.69/bbl | +0.51% | Slightly higher due to a tug-of-war between reports of Russian supply risk and supply/demand observations |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.99/bbl | +0.93% | Same as above, steady with awareness of tightness |
| natural gas | $3.11/MMBtu | -0.13% | Inventory and weather observation traffic |
| Gold (physical) | $3,642.50/oz | +0.11% | Maintenance of interest rate cut expectations and demand for safe assets |
| silver | $41.20/oz | +0.24% | Gold-linked and underpinning investment demand |
| copper | $4.54000/lb | +0.44% | Rebounding economic expectations and inventory expectations for a self-sustaining rebound |
(Crude settlement: Reuters)
crypto
- Bitcoin $116,777.85 (+2.01%): Buybacks due to slowing inflation expectations and recovery in risk tolerance.
- Ethereum $4,515.00 (+1.90%)The relative strength of the large theme continues and the supply-demand balance is expected to tighten.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/09/16 (Tue) U.S. Retail Sales (August) - Confirmation of Consumption Stickiness and Price Trends
- Wednesday, 2025/09/17 FOMC Policy Rate-.Initial Interest Rate Reduction Rangeand dot outlook focus
- Thursday, 2025/09/18: U.K. BOE Policy Rate - Clues as to whether or not it will remain unchanged and how the vote will be split.
- 2025/09/19 (Fri) U.S. - New Unemployment Insurance Claims - Inspection of the degree of slackness in labor supply and demand
Insight Summary
- Interest rate cut observation x Tech tractionMaintaining the trend of quality superiority with the continuation of
- Limited return of interest rates(2) Incremental phasing of medium-term duration based on the assumption that the
- Dollar depreciation lull rangeAssumption of a 146-148 rotation strategy for the dollar/yen
- Crude oil will return x Gold will maintain its pushAsymmetric hedge construction of
- Risk tolerance recovery linked to BTC highsAlso, before the event, size-suppressed mobile operations
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